News Release

Voters' views of Mormonism still hamper Romney's campaign

New research reveals a 'stained glass ceiling' obstructs Mitt Romney's bid for president

Peer-Reviewed Publication

Springer Science+Business Media

New York / Heidelberg, 22 May 2012 - A "stained glass ceiling" may be an obstacle to Mitt Romney's 2012 bid for the White House, reports a new article in Springer's journal, Political Behavior, by David Campbell (University of Notre Dame), Quin Monson (Brigham Young University) and John Green (University of Akron).

Mitt Romney's religion was a major stumbling block for his 2008 presidential aspirations, and may remain so in 2012. Real time voter analysis of the 2008 primaries reveals that while the social barriers of race and gender were largely overcome during the last US presidential campaign, religious affiliation (in this case, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints) is still a significant hurdle.

The paper's four sections examines why Romney was unable to break the religion barrier in 2008. The first section describes the attitudes of Americans towards Mormons - an important example of a religious 'out-group'. The research finds that the religion remains unpopular and mysterious because of the relative social insularity of Mormons. The second section reviews published work to establish how Romney's faith might have worked against him in 2008, and the third section reveals voter-survey data that supports these findings. The final section looks at the implications of these findings for the 2012 election and beyond.

Campbell and colleagues find that voters who have no personal exposure to Mormons are most likely to be persuaded by both negative and positive information about Mormon faith, while voters who have sustained personal contact with Mormons are the least likely to be persuaded either way. Voters with moderate contact, however, react strongly to negative information about the religion, but are not persuaded by opposing positive information. This last group of voters is the most problematic from Romney's perspective.

Romney failed to overcome the limitations on his candidacy based on his religion, in part because of the unpopularity of Mormons. These attitudes are driven largely by a lack of social contact between Mormons and other Americans, and in part because that low level of interaction allowed negative messages about Romney's religion to dissuade voters from supporting him, even when provided with opposing information.

The researchers conclude that Romney's religion is likely to remain "a potential stumbling block in 2012," unless public attitudes toward Mormons change. Such changes have occurred in the past, as with John F. Kennedy and Catholicism in 1960.

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Reference

Campbell DE et al (2012). The stained glass ceiling: social contact and Mitt Romney's 'religion problem'. Political Behavior; DOI 10.1007/s11109-012-9200-6. The article is open to the general public at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11109-012-9200-6

The full-text article is available to journalists on request.


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