image: Storm over the Spanish plain near Arauzo de Torre, a major wheat and sunflower production area on the margin of rain-fed agriculture view more
Credit: Image credit: David A. Robinson.
A study forecasts rates of water-induced soil erosion. A major driver of soil erosion and land degradation is water erosion induced by climate change and anthropogenic land use. Using three scenarios, Pasquale Borrelli and colleagues forecasted changes in soil erosion caused by water from 2015-2070. The authors modeled scenarios for 202 countries, combining data from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway with data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The modeling results of all scenarios found continued water erosion under all climatic conditions across all observed countries. Spatial soil erosion patterns suggested that soil erosion may harm major agricultural sectors, especially if erosion occurs in conjunction with intense rainfall. Areas with steep slopes and high-relief topography may also experience high erosion rates, similar to regions with sparse vegetation cover. Crops and managed pastures were estimated to be responsible for more than half of all soil erosion, and the combination of land use and climate change may result in an average increase in soil erosion of up to 66% by 2070. Furthermore, low-income and middle-income tropical and subtropical countries may be more susceptible to erosion increases than high-income countries in temperate latitudes. The findings suggest that conservation agriculture is necessary to mitigate future soil erosion and ensure food security, according to the authors.
Article #20-01403: "Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070)," by Pasquale Borrelli et al.
MEDIA CONTACT: Pasquale Borrelli, University of Basel, SWITZERLAND; tel: +39 338 1860657; e-mail: pasquale.borrelli@kangwon.ac.kr; lino.borrelli@yahoo.it
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Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences