Improved epidemic modeling around peaks (IMAGE)

University of Texas at Austin

Improved epidemic modeling around peaks

Caption

Epimodulated ARIMA model learns peak structure and improves forecast performance at the peak. Simulated daily new infections for a two peak epidemic (dots) with five forecasts from both the ARIMA model (green lines) and the epimodulated ARIMA model (pink lines).

Credit

University of Texas at Austin

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