Current state of tropical Pacific and the prediction of the 2026/27 El Niño (IMAGE)

Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research (OLAR)

Current state of tropical Pacific and the prediction of the 2026/27 El Niño

Caption

(A) Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in February 2026. The magenta,  blue, and purple regions denote the tropical western Pacific, the tropical northeastern Pacific, and the tropical southeastern Pacific, respectively. (B) The mean SST anomalies in February during historical El Niño years for the three regions mentioned above. The numbers in (A) and (B) indicate the ranking of the regional mean values for February 2026 among those of historical El Niño years in February. (C) Predicted Niño 3.4 index with (EXP_TP-LP) and without (EXP_HC) the annular warming event in February 2026. Shading indicates the standard deviation across the 10 ensemble members, and the thick curves represent the ensemble mean. The numbers denote the mean Niño 3.4 index averaged over December 2026 to February 2027. Units: °C.

Credit

Tao Lian et al., 2026/Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research

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