Projected Changes in Extreme Fire Weather Under Net-Zero and Net-Negative Carbon Emission Scenarios (IMAGE)
Caption
(a) Changes in carbon dioxide emissions (dashed lines) and concentrations (solid lines) over 400 years under different carbon forcing scenarios
Net-negative scenario (blue): Carbon emissions increase linearly until 2050, then decline, reaching a minimum in 2196, after which carbon neutrality is maintained.
Net-zero scenario (red): Follows the same emissions pathway as the carbon reduction scenario, reaches carbon neutrality in 2123, and maintains it through 2400.
(b) Changes in the frequency of extreme fire weather relative to the present climate under each scenario
Spatial distribution of changes in the frequency of extreme fire weather (Left) under the net-negative scenario and (Right) under the net-zero scenario.
Days of extreme fire weather are defined as days exceeding the 95th percentile threshold of the daily Fire Weather Index (FWI) derived from the present reference period (P0: 2001–2031). Changes relative to the present represent the difference between the N7 or Z7 period shown in panel (a) and the P0 baseline period.
(c) Changes in the intensity of extreme fire weather relative to the present climate under each scenario
Spatial distribution of changes in the intensity of extreme fire weather (Left) under the net-negative scenario and (Right) under the net-zero scenario.
The maps show future changes in annual maximum Fire Weather Index (FWI) value, indicating the peak fire danger index throughout the year, relative to present-day conditions
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POSTECH
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