Lung cancer mortality trends in China from 2013 to 2021, and projections to 2030. (IMAGE)
Caption
Lung cancer mortality trends in China from 2013 to 2021, and projections to 2030. The study flowchart summarizes the rationale, methods, main findings, and policy implications of this comprehensive analysis of lung cancer mortality in China from 2013 to 2021, with projections to 2030. Data were derived from the China Causes of Death Surveillance Dataset (2013–2021), covering urban/rural and eastern/central/western regions, stratified by sex and age group. ASMRs were calculated with the Segi world standard population. Joinpoint regression was used to identify temporal trends, and Bayesian age-period-cohort models were applied to project mortality through 2030. The population split method was used to quantify contributions of population aging, population size, and risk factors to mortality changes. Crude mortality increased by 2.3% annually, whereas the ASMR significantly declined after 2015. Lung cancer mortality rates exhibited marked urban-rural and regional differences. Projections suggested that the number of lung cancer deaths will increase to 760,200 by 2030, driven primarily by the aging population. Policy implications emphasize promoting tobacco control and low-dose spiral CT screening, particularly in rural areas, and establishing a precise prevention and control system for older people with lung cancer. AAPC, average annual percentage change; APC, annual percentage chang; ASMRs, age-standardized mortality rates.
Credit
Cancer Biology & Medicine
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