Three Scenarios for the Further Spread of COVID-19 (IMAGE)
Caption
Due to the relaxation of restrictions as of May 11, a further change in the infection rate is expected. Three possible scenarios for the development of new infections are illustrated in the figure. Optimistic scenario In the optimistic scenario (green), it is assumed that no increase in the infection rate takes place despite loosened restrictions. This scenario is based on the consideration that contact tracing and the detection of new outbreaks of infection could be so successful that they would reduce the spread of the infection, even though the measures have been relaxed. Neutral scenario In the neutral scenario (orange), it is assumed that the reproduction number is about R=1. This scenario could illustrate that although contacts are increased, hygiene and precautionary measures, as well as contact tracing, ensure that there are not too many transmissions. The number of new infections could then remain approximately constant. However, with every change in contact behavior, there is a risk of a new wave. Pessimistic scenario In the pessimistic scenario (red), it is assumed that the infection rate roughly doubles. This can be achieved by doubling contacts at work, in public places, and among friends. Less caution in individual contacts can also contribute to this. If the infection rate doubles, there will be another exponential increase. By July, there would then again be around 6,000 new infections per day.
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(c) MPIDS
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