Figure 2 (IMAGE) University of Sussex Caption Output of the compartmental model and comparison with data. The solid line represents the output of the model with the parameters inferred from the data. The shaded region depicts the 95% confidence interval (95% CI) computed from the data, i.e. attributing all the error to measurement error. The dots correspond to observed data. Since all data are collected by manual counting and recording, there is a significant amount of noise. Furthermore, we cannot verify that the counting protocol has not changed during the period. There are between 1 and 5 outliers in each data set, out of a total of 82 data points, but generally the model captures the dynamics of the data and the situation (Colour version online). Credit University of Sussex Usage Restrictions None License Licensed content Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert system.