Predicting Epidemic Risk for Premises in the Italian Cattle Trade Network (IMAGE)
Caption
Nodes represent animal holdings and links represent cattle movements. Top white circles (left and center) map the contact networks in the past and allow the identification of loyal nodes (grey contour surrounding the nodes). A disease spreading simulation run on past contact data (top center circle and left map of Italy) provides the infected farms (yellow nodes) in the simulated scenario. Coupled with the loyalty analysis, this numerical information allows us to predict which farms would be at high risk (red, or low risk, green, top right circle and right map of Italy) of infection if an outbreak would occur with the same epidemiological conditions, without the need of knowledge of the current network of contacts (dashed lines).
Credit
Valdano et al.
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Creative Commons 4.0
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