Abrupt Change and Extremal Outliers Observed Inwind Power Generation (IMAGE)
Caption
The left figure is an example of time series of fluctuation of power generation outputs. The right figure shows the histogram of the frequency of corresponding power fluctuation. When we can assume mild fluctuation as illustrated by the red line, modeling with normal distribution is acceptable. However, wind power generation fluctuation contains abrupt changes as illustrated by the blue line. Consequently, the corresponding histogram has slowly-decaying heavy tails, which represents the extremal outliers.
Credit
Kyoto University
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