News Release

Forecasting COVID-19 situation in Bangladesh

Peer-Reviewed Publication

Compuscript Ltd

Figure 1

image: Forecasting results of confirmed cases up to Oct. 31, 2021 (Black line: actual data; Blue line: three months forecast; Dark Gray zone: 80% CI; Light Gray zone: 95% CI; CI: confidence interval). view more 

Credit: BSH

Forecasting COVID-19 Situation in Bangladesh
The authors of this article aimed to predict all types of COVID-19 cases (verified people, deaths, and recoveries) from the deadliest third wave data of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh. Using the official website of the Directorate General of Health Services as a data source to identify and predict the upcoming trends of the COVID-19 situation of Bangladesh.
Fitting the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model on the data from March 01, 2021 to July 31, 2021, the findings of the ARIMA model (forecast model) revealed that infected, deaths, and recoveries numbers will have experienced exponential growth in Bangladesh to October 2021. The model reports that confirmed cases and deaths will escalate by four times, and the recoveries will have improved by five times at a later point in October 2021 if the trend of the three scenarios of COVID-19 from March to July lasts. Keywords: COVID-19ARIMA model, Forecast, Confirmed cases, Deaths, Recoveries # # # # # # Biosafety and Health is sponsored by the Chinese Medical Association, managed by National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC).
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CiteScore: 5.5
ISSN 2590-0536
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