This study is led by Prof. Dr. Wenying Chen (Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University), Prof. Dr. Xi Lu (School of Environment, Tsinghua University), and Dr. Xunzhang Pan (School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum-Beijing).
China surprised the international community by announcing carbon neutrality before 2060. A critical question arose as to the strategic decarbonization pathways for China’s fossil fuel-dominated energy system. The research team used an integrated assessment model (GCAM-TU) with a detailed representation of China’s energy system to derive how China could decarbonize its energy system to 2100 in the context of carbon peak, carbon neutrality and the global goal of keeping temperature increases well below 2°C or 1.5°C. The researchers designed new mitigation scenarios by combining temperature-control goals (1.5°C/2°C) and development narratives (net-zero/net-negative/deep-net-negative emissions development).
The team showed that China’s energy system would need to achieve carbon neutrality in 2055–2080 for staying well below 2°C and in approximately 2050 for staying below 1.5°C. “Our analysis indicates that China’s carbon-neutrality vision could align with the Paris climate goals,” Wenying Chen says. The team found that all scenarios suggested China to rapidly scale up end-use electrification, low-carbon electricity share, and non-fossil energy share. “China might need to peak coal consumption immediately, oil by 2035 and gas by 2045. It should also accelerate the deployment of carbon capture and storage and negative emissions technologies through targeted investments and policies,” Xi Lu says. “The installed capacity of coal-fired power plants in China is still growing slightly. However, it is robust across scenarios that China might need to completely phase out its conventional coal power plants before 2060 under 2°C and before 2050 under 1.5°C,” Xunzhang Pan says.
China’s decarbonization is critical to the success of the Paris climate goals. Through a comprehensive assessment of CO2 trajectories, sectoral mitigation, end-use sectors, electricity production, primary energy, and carbon capture and storage, this study provided illustrative references that could help Chinese decision-makers develop energy system decarbonization pathways, targets, and policies to achieve its carbon neutrality vision and global Paris goals. The study could also provide an example for other developing countries in considering Paris-compliant decarbonization pathways.
See the article:
Decarbonizing China’s energy system to support the Paris climate goals
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2022.05.020
Journal
Science Bulletin