CHAPEL HILL - North Carolina's economy continues to shine, and the outlook remains excellent, according to a University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill financial expert.
At 1.3 percent in December, the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill metropolitan area tied Rochester, Minn., for the third lowest unemployment rate in the United States, Dr. James F. Smith wrote in the February issue of "Business Forecast," his bimonthly newsletter. Only Charlottesville, Va., at 1.1 percent and Columbia, Mo., at 1.2 percent showed lower unemployment.
"The entire state averaged a 2.7 percent unemployment rate in December with 3,798,600 people in the labor force and only 104,200 unemployed," Smith said. "This contrasts sharply with New York City, which has a labor force of 3,385,100 people, of whom 258,400 were unemployed and looking for work in December."
The state's unemployment rate compares favorably with the national seasonally non-adjusted average of 4 percent, he said. North Carolina's seasonally adjusted rate was 3.1 percent in December, well below the 4.3 percent national average.
Smith, professor of finance at UNC-CH's Kenan-Flagler Business School, was rated the nation's most accurate economic forecaster by The Wall Street Journal in 1998 and 1996 and the second-most accurate by Business Week in 1997. He analyzed the most recent job figures from the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"Among the 51 metropolitan statistical areas with over 1 million inhabitants in the 1990 census, the lowest unemployment rate was the 1.6 percent in the Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA," he said. "Second was the Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point MSA at 1.9 percent and third was the Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, S.C., MSA at 2 percent."
Asheville, which came in at 1.9 percent, also showed low joblessness, the economist wrote.
In 1998, the Rocky Mount MSA felt the largest drop in unemployment - 2.4 percent - among all MSAs in the United States. At 5.1 percent, however, Rocky Mount still maintained the highest unemployment among N.C. metropolitan areas.
"With our outstanding colleges and universities and our truly extraordinary community college system, it is little wonder that North Carolina continues to attract new businesses looking for a place to expand where they can find eager, well-qualified people willing to give a full day's work for a reasonable wage or salary," Smith said.
"There is no reason to expect any slowdown in this activity at any time over the next decade or longer."
Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce showed personal income in North Carolina running at a record annual rate of $180.9 billion during the third quarter of 1998, he said.
The state is a solid fourth in personal income in the Southeast behind Florida at $386 billion, Georgia at $190 billion and Virginia at $186.8 billion. California leads the nation in personal income with $896.2 billion, followed by New York at $580.1 billion.
Note: Smith can be reached at 919-962-3176. As time allows, he's willing to discuss most economic issues with reporters.