News Release

Falling birth rates in sub-Saharan Africa signal move toward greater economic security

Peer-Reviewed Publication

Penn State

Recent birth rate declines in sub-Saharan Africa, especially in cities, may signal the first small, faltering steps toward balanced population, adequate food supplies and relative economic stability, a Penn State study says.

"Population growth in sub-Saharan Africa is currently about 3 percent per year. This is expected to decline as fertility falls, but recent U.N. projections suggest that by the year 2050, the population of the region will increase from its current level of about 650 million to somewhere between 1.5 and 2 billion," says Dr. David Shapiro, Penn State professor of economics, demography and women's studies. "The level of fertility that we see in the coming years will have crucial repercussions not just for the African, but also for the global economy."

Until the late 1980s, Africa south of the Sahara Desert -- including such countries as Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia and Nigeria -- was the only major world region where fertility rates remained high and showed no signs of falling. In terms of human fertility, sub-Saharan Africa was then at a stage similar to that of most of Europe a century ago, with a wide gap between declining death rates and persistently high birth rates, according to Shapiro, also a research associate with the University's Population Research Institute. However, the gap was distinctly wider for sub-Saharan Africa, translating into much more rapid population growth.

During the past decade, this situation has changed significantly, with fertility rates decreasing throughout much of sub-Saharan Africa, especially urban areas. The causes, all facilitated by urbanization, are fourfold: declining infant and child mortality, higher educational levels, delayed marriage or cohabitation, and increased use of contraceptives, says Shapiro.

The slowing of population growth should facilitate economic development, making for better use of the region's human and natural resources, he adds. This has implications worldwide, since it means that sub-Saharan Africa can start to become a full-fledged economic bloc in its own right, providing mass markets for U.S. goods and requiring less aid from the industrialized powers.

Shapiro is co-author of the paper, "Fertility Transition in Urban and Rural Areas of Sub-Saharan Africa," presented at a recent meeting of the Population Association of America in Los Angeles. His co-author is B. Oleko Tambashe, research associate professor of international health and development at Tulane University. The paper was originally prepared for the Chaire Quetelet Symposium in Demography held at the Catholic University of Louvain, Belgium.

"A fertility rate of about 2.7 children per family is necessary to maintain the population at a zero growth rate in sub-Saharan Africa," Shapiro says. "Among the 25 sub-Saharan countries where Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) have been taken, totals from all surveys reveal an average fertility rate of 6.6 children per family in rural districts and 4.8 children in urban districts. This is still very far from reaching population stability."

During the 1990s, however, fertility rates began an unprecedented decline. In Kenya, the fertility rate nationwide fell from 6.7 children per family in 1989 to 4.7 in 1998. Togo showed a decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) from 6.59 in 1988 to 5.40 in 1998; Zimbabwe's TFR fell from 5.31 in 1988-89 to 4.29 in 1994.

"The fertility rate decline was most pronounced in urban areas," Shapiro notes. "This was particularly true in capital cities, where fertility rates in Kenya and Togo are in fact approaching the replacement level. Birth rates are beginning to fall even in rural areas for a number of sub-Saharan countries.

"This trend, which likely will be permanent, can be traced to urbanization and related socioeconomic changes," says the Penn State researcher. "The levels of education in sub-Saharan Africa have improved for urban and rural dwellers alike, but particularly for city residents. Because education is more accessible in the cities, urban dwellers often make the decision to have fewer children but provide the children they have with more schooling."

Education in turn often involves postponing a sexual partnership and the onset of childbearing, especially among women in the prime childbearing years from ages 15 to 29.

"In urban areas, women are also more inclined to use contraception than their rural counterparts. For women between ages 25 and 34, the percentage employing modern contraceptives is slightly over 20 percent, compared to 8 percent for rural women. However, even in urban centers, the overall use is still low," says Shapiro.

"Sub-Saharan Africa seems to be marked by a three-stage pattern of fertility decline, with birth rates initially dropping in urban areas while remaining stable in rural areas, then fertility falling in both settings but more rapidly in urban areas. In the third phase, fertility continues to decline in both urban and rural places, but more rapidly in the latter," the researcher notes.

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This research was partially supported by a William and Flora Hewlett Foundation grant in International Demography.

EDITORS: Dr. Shapiro is at 814-863-1533 or at dshapiro@psu.edu by email. Dr. Tambashe, currently in Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire, is at 225-22-47-10-18, or at otambas1@mailhost.tcs.tulane.edu by email.


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