News Release

Less death on British roads thanks to medical advances says new study

Peer-Reviewed Publication

Imperial College London

Improvements in medical technology and better medical care can take much credit for reducing the death toll from accidents on Britain's roads according to new research by transport policy experts at Imperial College London.

An analysis of road traffic accident fatalities and injuries in the UK during the last 20 years found evidence suggesting that improvements in medical technology and medical care made a significant contribution to the 45 per cent fall in fatalities during this period.

At 3,500 deaths per year, Britain has one of the lowest traffic-related fatality rates per capita and per kilometre travelled of any industrialised nation. The total number of casualties from traffic accidents is currently about 300,000 per year.

But the researchers calculate that improvements in medical technology alone account for 700 lives saved annually today, lives that would have been lost in accidents 20 years ago.

"Today we are simply saving more lives of those people getting into accidents," says Dr Robert Noland, a transport policy expert and author of the research, based in the Centre for Transport Studies at Imperial College London.

"The statistical associations in our data suggest that improvements in medical technology are a key factor in reduced traffic fatalities. For example, the reduction in time that the average patient spends in the hospital reflects many of the improvements in medical technology and is strongly correlated with traffic fatality reductions."

In recent decades, extraordinary advances have occurred in many areas of the health sciences, including genetics, body imaging, microsurgery, transplantation, and in the technical ability to sustain life, say the authors.

Together with PhD student Mohammed A. Quddus, Dr Noland analysed 20 years of government data relating to fatalities in transport accidents in Great Britain between 1979 and 1998.

Using statistically significant and relevant proxies for medical care and technology Noland and Quddus constructed a detailed statistical model to tease out their effects, while controlling for many of the other factors that may be associated with reducing fatalities such as changes in road networks and demographic composition of the population.

As a proxy for medical technology they used the average length of inpatient stay in the hospital, and for medical care, the per-capita level of NHS staff, and the number of people per-capita waiting for hospital treatment.

Medical technology is very important, a more significant factor than medical care according to this analysis, said Dr Noland. "But this analysis also implies that policies aimed at improving road safety in Great Britain are probably less effective than we might think," he adds.

"For example if road designs allow motorists to travel faster, they may in fact be making things more dangerous. Studies using data from the United States suggests that this could be a reason why their road fatality rate is much higher than in Britain", said Dr Noland.

A further suprising finding emerged from the study; as the average vintage of vehicles on the road increases, fatalities are reduced. Dr Noland does not claim to have a definitive explanation for this finding, and is keen to investigate further.

The research is currently in press and available online for review in the journal Accident Analysis and Prevention. The Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) funded this research.

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For further information, please contact:

Tom Miller
Imperial College London Press Office
Tel: 44-207-594-6704
Mobile: 44-780-388-6248
E-mail: t.miller@imperial.ac.uk

Notes to Editors

Title: Improvements in medical care and technology and reductions in traffic-related fatalities in Great Britain. Journal: Accident Analysis and Prevention. Dr Robert B. Noland and Mohammed A. Quddus. In Press. Available online.

The Centre for Transport Studies is based in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Imperial College London.

Website: www.cts.cv.ic.ac.uk

About Imperial College London

Consistently rated in the top three UK university institutions, Imperial College London is a world leading science-based university whose reputation for excellence in teaching and research attracts students (10,000) and staff (5,000) of the highest international quality.

Innovative research at the College explores the interface between science, medicine, engineering and management and delivers practical solutions, which enhance the quality of life and the environment - underpinned by a dynamic enterprise culture.

Website: www.imperial.ac.uk


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