WASHINGTON, D.C. and LONDON, ENGLAND - January 17, 2006 -- The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (BAS) is moving the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock today from seven to five minutes to midnight. Reflecting global failures to solve the problems posed by nuclear weapons and the climate crisis, the decision by the BAS Board of Directors was made in consultation with the Bulletin's Board of Sponsors, which includes 18 Nobel Laureates.
BAS announced the Clock change today at an unprecedented joint news conference held at the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington, DC, and the Royal Society in London. In a statement supporting the decision to move the hand of the Doomsday Clock, the BAS Board focused on two major sources of catastrophe: the perils of 27,000 nuclear weapons, 2000 of them ready to launch within minutes; and the destruction of human habitats from climate change. In articles by 14 leading scientists and security experts writing in the January-February issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (http://www.thebulletin.org), the potential for catastrophic damage from human-made technologies is explored further.
Created in 1947 by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the Doomsday Clock has been adjusted only 17 times prior to today, most recently in February 2002 after the events of 9/11.
By moving the hand of the Clock closer to midnight--the figurative end of civilization--the BAS Board of Directors is drawing attention to the increasing dangers from the spread of nuclear weapons in a world of violent conflict, and to the catastrophic harm from climate change that is unfolding.
The BAS statement explains: "We stand at the brink of a Second Nuclear Age. Not since the first atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki has the world faced such perilous choices. North Korea's recent test of a nuclear weapon, Iran's nuclear ambitions, a renewed emphasis on the military utility of nuclear weapons, the failure to adequately secure nuclear materials, and the continued presence of some 26,000 nuclear weapons in the United States and Russia are symptomatic of a failure to solve the problems posed by the most destructive technology on Earth."
The BAS statement continues: "The dangers posed by climate change are nearly as dire as those posed by nuclear weapons. The effects may be less dramatic in the short term than the destruction that could be wrought by nuclear explosions, but over the next three to four decades climate change could cause irremediable harm to the habitats upon which human societies depend for survival."
Stephen Hawking, a BAS sponsor, professor of mathematics at the University of Cambridge, and a fellow of The Royal Society, said: "As scientists, we understand the dangers of nuclear weapons and their devastating effects, and we are learning how human activities and technologies are affecting climate systems in ways that may forever change life on Earth. As citizens of the world, we have a duty to alert the public to the unnecessary risks that we live with every day, and to the perils we foresee if governments and societies do not take action now to render nuclear weapons obsolete and to prevent further climate change."
Kennette Benedict, executive director, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, said: "As we stand at the brink of a Second Nuclear Age and at the onset of unprecedented climate change, our way of thinking about the uses and control of technologies must change to prevent unspeakable destruction and future human suffering."
Sir Martin Rees, president of the Royal Society, professor of cosmology and astrophysics, master of Trinity College at the University of Cambridge, and a BAS sponsor, said: "Nuclear weapons still pose the most catastrophic and immediate threat to humanity, but climate change and emerging technologies in the life sciences also have the potential to end civilization as we know it."
Lawrence M. Krauss, professor of physics and astronomy at Case Western Reserve University, and a BAS sponsor, said: "In these dangerous times, scientists have a responsibility to speak truth to power especially if it might provoke actions to reduce threats from the preventable technological dangers currently facing humanity. To do anything else would be negligent."
Ambassador Thomas Pickering, a BAS director and co-chair of the International Crisis Group, said: "Although our current situation is dire, we have the means today to successfully address these global problems. For example, through vigorous diplomacy and international agencies like the International Atomic Energy Agency, we can negotiate and implement agreements that could protect us all from the most destructive technology on Earth--nuclear weapons."
ABOUT BAS AND THE CLOCK
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists was founded in 1945 by University of Chicago scientists who had worked on the Manhattan Project and were deeply concerned about the use of nuclear weapons and nuclear war. In 1947 the Bulletin introduced its clock to convey the perils posed by nuclear weapons through a simple design. The Doomsday Clock evoked both the imagery of apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary idiom of nuclear explosion (countdown to zero). In 1949 Bulletin leaders realized that movement of the minute hand would signal the organization's assessment of world events. The Bulletin's Doomsday Clock has become a universally recognized indicator of the world's vulnerability to nuclear weapons and other threats. Additional information is available on the Web at http://www.thebulletin.org.
EDITOR'S NOTE: A streaming audio replay of the news event will be available on the Web at http://www.thebulletin.org as of 6 p.m. ET and 11 p.m. in London/2300 GMT on January 17, 2007.
IN THE JANUARY-FEBRUARY 2007 ISSUE:
"Nuclear weapons still pose the most potent threat to humanity, but climate change and emerging technologies have quickened our ability to self-destruct," say the Bulletin's editors in presenting 14 essays that see an intense need for increased scientific literacy, open inquiry, and reliance on reason.
In the nuclear weapons section, Bruce G. Blair of the World Security Institute observes that the United States and Russia have not progressed sufficiently beyond a Cold War mindset, aggravating the risk of accidental nuclear war and nuclear theft. Wolfgang K. H. Panofsky, director emeritus of the Stanford Linear Accelerator, challenges the inclusion of chemical and biological weapons in the term "Weapons of Mass Destruction" (WMD), suggesting that sloppy semantics weaken serious efforts "to stem the spread of the one and only true weapon of mass destruction."
In a wide-ranging interview on climate change with Bulletin Executive Director Kennette Benedict, AAAS President John P. Holdren asserts that "We're cooked, literally," if we cannot reduce greenhouse gas emissions immediately. Robert H. Socolow of Princeton University takes on the two-sided aspect of science's transformative power, noting that international nuclear weapons control and greater investments in carbon-responsive technology worldwide demand "new science, new politics, and new ethics." The climate change section concludes with four leading experts describing how to increase renewable energy, stop wasting energy, marshal market incentives, and stiffen our political backbone.
Looking at emerging technologies, Matthew S. Meselson of Harvard University acknowledges that every major technology has been exploited for military purposes--reinforcing his worst fear that "things we do now without adequate foresight might open the way for the unrestrained application of advances biotechnology for hostile purposes." Nanotechnology needs more time and space to grow safely, according to Northwestern University Professor Mark A. Ratner and Daniel Ratner, chairman of the Nanotechnology Alliance. Scientist and author K. Eric Drexler looks at the promise and dangers of molecular manufacturing, hoping that a well-informed public will overcome the distortions of mass infotainment that mystifies, simplifies, or ignores complex topics.
Jonathan Schell, author and Harold Willens Peace Fellow at the Nation Institute, dissects the starkness of doomsday terminology. Author and philosopher Sam Keen contemplates the meaning of apocalypse in a secular age. Martin Rees, president of the Royal Society, wonders whether "civilization can be safeguarded, without humanity having to sacrifice its diversity and individualism."
In separate essays on preventing doomsday, John Steinbruner, professor of public policy at the University of Maryland and Freeman Dyson, professor emeritus of physics at Princeton's Institute for Advanced Study, discuss how the risks of scientific advances can be acknowledged and addressed only with transparency, openness, and stringent collaborative monitoring to protect the world from destructive applications.
Also in the January/February 2007 issue of the Bulletin, Doomsday Clock creator Martyl is featured in a review of the image's evolution and impact. Author and graphic designer Steven Heller looks at the mushroom cloud symbol and how it became the indelible symbol of terror in the nuclear age.