TU Delft professor Marcel Stive has received a €2.9 million ERC Advanced Grant from the EU. He plans to use this sum for the Nearshore Monitoring and Modelling: Inter-scale Coastal Behaviour project during the next five years. The object of this large-scale observation and measurement programme along the coast around The Hague is to produce sound long-term predictions for coastal change processes. So far, predictions of this kind have been lacking.
The tremendous growth in coastal area populations over the last 50 years has prompted investments (in infrastructure, for example) that are worth billions of euros. Consequently, natural risks and dangers affecting coastal areas will result in massive environmental and socio-economic damage. Striking examples of this include the tsunami in the Indian Ocean (2004) and Hurricane Katrina in the New Orleans area (2005). The anticipated rise in sea level makes the problem even more pressing.
"In order to minimise the anticipated impact of this type of risks, we must shift quickly to well-informed coastal zone planning and management," says Professor Marcel Stive from TU Delft. "But in order to do so, we first need detailed predictions of coastal changes using extensive time and space scales (decades and dozens of kilometres)."
According to Stive, the majority of long-term predictions for large-scale coastal change processes are still based on relatively simple methods and models. Stive: "That's not enough. The interactions and feedbacks of the physical processes must be studied and mapped on smaller spatial (100 m) and time scales (weeks) as well, in order to be able to make sound long-term predictions on a large scale."
Stive therefore wants to introduce a strategic combination of various techniques (such as satellite and video surveillance) in the new measurement and observation project. Although these operate mostly on a microscale and mesoscale, the crux is the combination of techniques and data that apply to the long term. This type of data is gleaned from sources including the JARKUS monitoring programme, which performs annual assessments of the Dutch coast. The result will be a data set that offers insight into the interactions taking place on a comprehensive time and space scale. The project that has been awarded the grant will be carried out in a coastal zone of 20 kilometres around The Hague during the next five years.