Using outbreak data from 2003-2010, Kathleen O'Reilly of Imperial College London, UK and colleagues develop a statistical model of the spread of wild polioviruses in Africa that can predict polio outbreaks six months in advance. The authors' findings, published in this week's PLoS Medicine, indicate that outbreaks of polio in Africa over the study period resulted mainly from continued transmission in Nigeria and other countries that reported polio cases, and from poor immunization status.
The authors highlight how the geographical risk of polio is changing over time in Africa, saying "As the incidence of polio in Nigeria has remained very low in 2010 and 2011, there may be a unique opportunity to eliminate polio from Africa in the near-term through targeted vaccination informed by appropriate predictive models."
Funding: This work was funded by the Poliovirus Research subcommittee of the WHO, a Royal Society University Research Fellowship to NCG. KMO, NCG, and CAD acknowledge the Medical Research Council for funding of the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling at Imperial College. WHO is one of the spearheading partners of GPEI, and provides technical assistance and supports surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis. The Royal Society and the Medical Research Council had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Competing Interests: CM is a serving staff member of the World Health Organization. NG has received funding from the World Health Organization. All other authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Citation: O'Reilly KM, Chauvin C, Aylward RB, Maher C, Okiror S, et al. (2011) A Statistical Model of the International Spread of Wild Poliovirus in Africa Used to Predict and Prevent Outbreaks. PLoS Med 8(10): e1001109. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001109
CONTACT:
Kathleen O'Reilly
Imperial College London
Department of Medicine
12 Norfolk Place
London
United Kingdom
k.oreilly@imperial.ac.uk
Journal
PLoS Medicine