Researchers used model simulations to examine changes in permafrost and carbon storage in the northern permafrost region from 2010 to 2299. The degree to which climate change might influence carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region has policy implications. However, most current climate system models do not depict the relationship between permafrost and soil carbon dynamics well enough to accurately assess the effects of climate change on carbon in the region. A. David McGuire and colleagues used regional and global biogeochemical climate models to compare permafrost and carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region from 2010 to 2299. The authors used the models in the context of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate projection simulations, which reflect low and high carbon dioxide emissions, respectively. For RCP4.5, the study indicated permafrost area losses from 3-5 million km2 and changes in soil carbon ranging from 66 Pg carbon loss to 70 Pg carbon gain. For RCP8.5, permafrost area losses were between 6-16 million km2, whereas soil carbon losses varied from 74-652 Pg and did not occur substantially until after 2100. Effective mitigation efforts may help lessen the effects of climate change on the release of soil carbon in the northern permafrost region, according to the authors.
Article #17-19903: "Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change," by A. David McGuire et al.
MEDIA CONTACT: A. David McGuire, United States Geological Survey, Fairbanks, AK; tel: 907-474-6242; e-mail: <admcguire@alaska.edu>
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