News Release

Patterns of nonpolio enterovirus transmission

Peer-Reviewed Publication

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Analysis of seasonal patterns of nonpolio enterovirus cases suggests regional distributions and timings of cases, with local dew point variation accounting for much of the variation in enterovirus transmission intensity, according to a study. Enteroviruses, including poliovirus, cause neurological and respiratory diseases, with cases peaking in the summer months. Margarita Pons-Salort and colleagues used US nonpolio enterovirus data from 1983 to 2013 to identify seasonal trends of disease incidence. The authors uncovered a geographic pattern in which cases of the viruses were more regularly distributed throughout the year in the southern United States than in the northern states and in which cases peaked between July and September. The pattern is consistent with historical prevaccine poliomyelitis data, except that nonpolio enteroviruses peak 1 month earlier than the historical peak of poliomyelitis. Examining multiple factors that may explain the seasonal and geographic trend, the authors found that dew point temperature alone accounted for around 30% of the variation in the intensity of transmission. The result is consistent with experiments conducted in the 1960s in which poliovirus survival time in aerosols increased with higher dew points. According to the authors, identification of seasonal patterns is a first step toward understanding the transmission dynamics of the viruses.

Article #17-21159: "The seasonality of nonpolio enteroviruses in the United States: Patterns and drivers," by Margarita Pons-Salort et al.

MEDIA CONTACT: Margarita Pons-Salort, Imperial College London, UNITED KINGDOM; tel: +44 (0)20 7594 3217, +44 7732916099; e-mail: <m.pons-salort@imperial.ac.uk>

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