Researchers evaluated crop-based feed and land use requirements related to aquaculture in a simulation-based study. Aquaculture is a fast-growing food sector and increasingly relies on terrestrial crops to feed farmed species. However, the effect on feed and land use from fed aquaculture, compared with livestock agriculture, remains unclear. Halley E. Froehlich and colleagues used scenario-based simulations to examine how global changes from predominantly meat-based diets to those based on cultured seafood might affect environmental pressures associated with feed and land use in the future. The authors compared three different scenarios in 2050 using country-level aquatic and terrestrial data related to food production. The simulations included a business-as-usual scenario, a mixed scenario involving freshwater and marine aquaculture, and an additional scenario with mainly marine-based aquaculture. The results revealed that future aquaculture production would need to be more than four times higher than current levels to replace average future meat demand. However, an aquaculture-dominant human diet reduced feed-crop requirements by approximately 598.7 and 564.7 million tonnes in the mixed and marine scenarios, respectively, compared with the business-as-usual scenario. Additionally, the authors found that even when aquaculture provided around one-third of future protein requirements, it required less land than meat-based agriculture in the majority of countries worldwide. The study highlights considerations for using aquaculture to meet future food demands, according to the authors.
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Article #18-01692: "Comparative terrestrial feed and land use of an aquaculture-dominant world," by Halley E. Froehlich, Claire Runge, Rebecca Gentry, Steven Gaines, and Benjamin Halpern.
MEDIA CONTACT: Halley E. Froehlich, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA; tel: 206-375-4182; e-mail: froehlich@nceas.ucsb.edu
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences