Researchers report that a multidimensional population model that captures education levels and regional demographic heterogeneity in India offers a more informative population outlook than conventional population models that rely only on age and sex at the national level. Population models project that India and China will each be home to around 1.5 billion people by 2025, with India expected to surpass China as the world's most populous country within the next decade. Samir KC and colleagues compared population forecasts from conventional models to models that accounted for factors such as higher birthrates in rural versus urban states, which increased population projections. The authors' model also incorporated increased educational attainment over time, which affected both fertility and mortality and decreased population projections. To capture the effects of such factors, the authors developed a five-dimensional model, which considers age, sex, education, state-level trends, and rural versus urban residence, and demonstrated that different degrees of heterogeneity aggregation influence population forecasts. According to the authors, sustained education expansion in India, which trails China in human capital and GDP per capita, might rapidly boost the country's development to levels comparable to more developed Asian peers.
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Article #17-22359: "Future population and human capital in heterogeneous India," by Samir KC, Marcus Wurzer, Markus Speringer, and Wolfgang Lutz
MEDIA CONTACT: Samir KC, Asian Demographic Research Center, Shanghai University, CHINA; e-mail: kcsamir@gmail.com