Researchers report estimates of climate change impacts on electricity consumption in China's Yangtze River Delta. Climate change is expected to have a substantial impact on electricity consumption. Most empirical estimates of links between temperature and electricity consumption focus on developed countries, with comparatively less research from China. William Pizer, Libo Wu, and colleagues estimated a temperature-electricity relationship based on daily electricity use data from more than 800,000 residential customers in the Pudong district of Shanghai between 2014 and 2016. For temperatures above 25 °C, daily electricity consumption increased by 14.5% for every 1 °C increase in daily temperature. Electricity consumption was nearly independent of temperature between 13 °C and 25 °C, and increased moderately with decreasing temperature below 13 °C. By combining this empirical relationship with results from climate model simulations, the authors estimated that by the end of the 21st century, annual mean residential electricity consumption would increase by approximately 9.2% for each 1 °C increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) relative to the late 20th century. During the same period, annual peak consumption would increase by 36.1% for each 1 °C increase in GMST. According to the authors, the results could be applied to other urban areas throughout the Yangtze River Delta, a relatively wealthy and populous region of China, and might contribute to planning climate change mitigation efforts.
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Article #18-04667: "Climate change and residential electricity consumption in the Yangtze River Delta, China," by Yating Li, William A. Pizer, and Libo Wu.
MEDIA CONTACT: William A. Pizer, Duke University Sanford School of Public Policy, Durham, NC; tel: 919-613-9286, 202-427-7473; e-mail: billy.pizer@duke.edu; Libo Wu, Fudan University, Shanghai, CHINA; e-mail: wulibo@fudan.edu.cn
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences