Researchers report that climate-related impacts to economies may slow carbon emissions at rates that can offset natural climate feedbacks that increase emissions, but at a societal cost. Rising temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels can lead to natural climate feedback cycles, such as impairment of carbon dioxide absorption by oceans with increasing temperatures, resulting in nonlinear rates of warming. Such climate change drivers can also affect economic feedback cycles in which the effects of climate change, such as natural disasters, can slow economic activity and reduce societies' greenhouse gas emissions. The balance between the two feedback cycles, natural and economic, is not well understood. Dawn Woodard, James Randerson, and colleagues modeled natural and economic warming trends under a range of future scenarios. Under a high-warming scenario, climate-driven losses in economic activity by 2100 decreased fossil fuel emissions by 13%, reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide by more than 100 parts per million. However, the natural feedbacks over the same period increased atmospheric carbon dioxide by a similar amount, offsetting the economic climate gains. According to the authors, the results suggest that climate-related decreases in economic activity can offset natural warming feedbacks but may increase inequality, disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, and reduce resources available to nations to mitigate climate change effects.
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Article #18-05187: "Economic carbon cycle feedbacks may offset additional warming from natural feedbacks," by Dawn Woodard, Steven Davis, and James T. Randerson.
MEDIA CONTACT: Dawn Woodard, University of California, Irvine, CA; tel: 828-773-9890; e-mail: dwoodard@uci.edu
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences