Researchers report that the risk of dengue fever outbreaks can be predicted from the effects of climate variation on mosquito abundance. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease currently affecting almost half the world's population, and the geographic extent of dengue incidence is increasing. Although dengue is a climate-sensitive disease, previous attempts to model outbreak risk based on climate have not incorporated local mosquito dynamics. From data on mosquito abundance in major Chinese cities from 2005-2015, Nils C. Stenseth and colleagues examined relationships between monthly mosquito abundance and the previous month's mean temperature and number of precipitating days in a given city. The authors used this information to develop a mathematical model of local dengue incidence in which the transmission rate depended explicitly on local mosquito density. The model reproduced observed dengue incidence during outbreak years in various cities between 2005 and 2014. Furthermore, when trained on 2005-2014 data, the model accurately predicted incidence in 2015. The results suggest that local climate conditions influence dengue dynamics through their effect on vector dynamics, which enables mapping of future dengue outbreak risk. A similar approach might be used to predict the incidence of other mosquito-borne diseases, according to the authors.
Article #18-06094: "Climate-driven variation in mosquito density predicts the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue," by Ruiyun Li et al.
MEDIA CONTACT: Nils C. Stenseth, University of Oslo, NORWAY; tel: +47-22-85-45-84 x4400; e-mail: n.c.stenseth@ibv.uio.no; Ruiyun Li, University of Oslo, NORWAY; tel: +44-79-2851-1942; e-mail: ruiyun.li@imperial.ac.uk
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Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences