A study explores the effects of the Justinianic Plague. Current scholarly consensus indicates that the first plague pandemic, and in particular, its initial outbreak known as the Justinianic Plague, caused significant demographic, economic, and political changes between 541 CE and 750 CE. To determine how the Justinianic Plague affected Late Antique populations in Europe and the Mediterranean, Lee Mordechai and colleagues examined contemporary literary sources, stone inscriptions, coinage, papyrus documents, pollen samples, Late Antique plague genomes, and mortuary archaeology. The authors found that several historical texts exaggerate plague mortality. Additionally, the authors found no detectable decrease in coin circulation, inscription production, or papyrus documents, suggesting continued economic vitality and no observable demographic decline after the plague onset. Further, the authors analyzed pollen evidence for agricultural production, which showed no decrease tied to plague mortality. An analysis of human burials revealed that the plague did not result in burial custom changes, such as those that occurred when the Black Death killed vast numbers of people. The results suggest that the demographic effects of the Justinianic Plague may have been overestimated, according to the authors.
Article #19-03797: "The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic?," by Lee Mordechai et al.
MEDIA CONTACT: Lee Mordechai, National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, Annapolis, MD; email: lmordechai@sesync.org
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Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences