Researchers report a model for estimating the probabilities of extreme storm surge events that exploits dependencies in sea levels across sites to compensate for the sparseness of observed extreme events; the model yielded good agreement with tide gauge data, reduced uncertainty in estimates of 50-year storm surge levels compared with traditional modeling approaches, and allowed estimation of storm surge levels at arbitrary ungauged locations, according to the authors.
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Article #19-13049: "Probabilistic reanalysis of storm surge extremes in Europe," by Francisco M. Calafat and Marta Marcos.
MEDIA CONTACT: Francisco M. Calafat, National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, UNITED KINGDOM; tel: +44-7591-084-616; e-mail: <Francisco.Calafat@noc.ac.uk>
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences