Justin Gest, Associate Professor of Public Policy, Schar School of Policy and Government, and Jack Goldstone, Hazel Professor/Eminent Scholar/Director of the Center for the Study of Social Change, Institutions and Policy (SCIP), Schar School of Policy and Government, are conducting an analysis to highlight key outcomes based on two demographic scenarios.
In particular, the researchers are looking at aging and fertility rates and projecting population parameters subject to a range of future annual flow levels between 200,000 to 2 million people for the next 20 to 50 years. From there, Gest and Goldstone are projecting the downstream effects of such population scenarios on age distributions, overall fertility rates, fiscal?pension balances, property values, economic growth, and the gross domestic product. For additional context, the researchers will also look at how both high and low immigration has affected at least two specific metropolitan regions.
Upon completion of their work, Gest and Goldstone will produce a succinct and accessible report of their findings. They will also draft an executive summary and op-ed commentary about the results of their work.
The researchers hope that their analysis will obviate speculation and hyperbole and provide the underpinning for more clear?eyed, evidence?based policymaking.
Gest and Goldstone received $46,951 from FWD.us Education Fund, Inc., for this project. Funding began in January 2020 and will conclude in late December of this year.