A Bayesian statistical analysis of the chronology of life's emergence and development on Earth suggests that if Earth's history were to be repeated, life would likely emerge similarly early compared with when life emerged in reality, but that, in contrast, the emergence of intelligence might be a sufficiently rare event that it would not be guaranteed to re-occur, according to the author.
Article #19-21655: "An objective Bayesian analysis of life's early start and our late arrival," by David Kipping.
MEDIA CONTACT: David Kipping, Columbia University, New York, NY; tel: 212-854-6899; e-mail: d.kipping@columbia.edu
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Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences