Predicting heat death in species more reliable with new mathematical model (IMAGE)
Caption
Accumulated mortality rates from 1984 to 1991 (years in which the abundance of the Drosophila subobscura fly was estimated in a population of Santiago de Chile) and the foreseen effect caused by global warming using temperature data from 2014 to 2018 and the newly proposed mathematical model. In blue, the estimation of mortality for flies acclimated to low temperatures and, in red, those acclimated to higher temperatures, corresponding approximately to the average temperature at the end of spring in Santiago. The survival function predicts a population crash towards the middle or end of summer, coinciding with the population abundance data, in which it is observed that Drosophila subobscura practically disappears from this locality in summer. The CTmax data of this species predicts that there should be no mortality in summer.
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UAB
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