Global warming threshold estimates (IMAGE) Stockholm University Caption Figure 2: Our global warming threshold estimates for global ‘core’ and regional ‘impact’ climate tipping elements (a) relative to IPCC SSP projections and likely future scenarios given current policies and targets (b) and how many thresholds may be crossed per SSP projection (c). Bars in (a) show the minimum (base, yellow), central (line, red), and maximum (top, dark red) threshold estimates for each element (bold font, global core; regular font, regional impact), with a palaeorecord of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) over the past ~25ky (95) and projections of future climate change (green, SSP1-1.9; yellow, SSP1-2.6; orange, SSP2-4.5; red, SSP3-7.0; purple, SSP5-8.5) from IPCC AR6 (23) shown for context. Future projections are shown in more detail in (b), along with estimated 21st century warming trajectories for current and net-zero policies (grey bars, extending into (a); horizontal lines show central estimates, bar height the uncertainty ranges) as of November 2021 (96) versus the Paris Agreement range of 1.5-<2°C (green bar). The number of thresholds potentially passed in the coming decades depending on SSP trajectory in (c) is shown per decade (bars) and cumulatively (lines). Credit Earth Commission, PIK, SRC and Exeter University Usage Restrictions Free for journalistic use License Original content Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert system.