New population risk prediction model for likelihood of ICU admission and survival

INDIANAPOLIS – A significant obstacle to improving care and outcomes for intensive care unit (ICU) patients is the unexpected nature of becoming seriously ill. Which groups of patients are likely to become severely ill and will they survive their ICU stay?

In a first step in creating infrastructure for further studies to identify and follow cohorts of patients who may become critically ill, researchers including Sikandar Khan, D.O, M.S., of Regenstrief Institute and Indiana University School of Medicine, have developed and conducted initial testing of the Prediction Risk Score. Harnessing information available in a health system’s electronic health records, this novel population health tool enables health systems and researchers to better identify groups of patients at risk of being admitted to an ICU in the future and their potential outcomes. ICU survivors are at risk for ICU-acquired cognitive and physical function impairments and may require extensive post-ICU care.

Because the growing population of middle-age individuals is equally at risk for poor health outcomes as older patients, the researchers developed the scoring system to identify at-risk patients as young as age 50.

“Our Risk Prediction Score tool is designed to be used by health systems and researchers so they can engage with adults in a certain population -- perhaps those with certain specific health issues or those living in a specific geographic area -- who may be at higher risk of ICU admission and higher or lower risk of ICU survival,” said Dr. Khan. “The good news is that if researchers are able to identify populations likely to become future ICU patients using the Prediction Risk Score, they may be able to enroll patients in these populations in studies earlier, and health systems may be able to develop new programs and new models of care for at-risk populations to improve the outcomes of individual patients in and after the ICU.

“Currently we have imprecise tools to identify which groups of patients will become severely ill. This study presents the first step in creating infrastructure for further research by us and others to identify and follow cohorts of patients who may become critically ill and ultimately to improve their outcomes.”

“Development of a population-level prediction model for intensive care unit (ICU) survivorship and mortality in older adults: A population-based cohort study” is published in the peer-reviewed journal Health Science Reports. The study was supported by the National Institutes of Health’s National Institute on Aging.

Regenstrief Institute authors, in addition to Dr. Sikandar Khan are Malaz Boustani, M.D., MPH, and co-senior author Babar Khan, M.D., M.S.

All authors and affiliations

Sikandar H. Khan^1,2,3, Anthony J. Perkins⁴, Mikita Fuchita⁵, Emma Holler⁶, Damaris Ortiz⁷, Malaz Boustani⁸, Babar A Khan^1,2,3, Sujuan Gao⁴.

• ¹Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care Sleep and Occupational Medicine Indianapolis Indiana USA.
• ²Regenstrief Institute Indiana University Center for Aging Research Indianapolis Indiana USA.
• ³Department of Medicine Indiana University School of Medicine Indianapolis Indiana USA.
• ⁴Department of Biostatistics and Health Data Science Indiana University School of Medicine Indianapolis Indiana USA.
• ⁵Department of Anesthesiology University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus Aurora Colorado USA.
• ⁶Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Indiana University School of Public Health Bloomington Indiana USA.
• ⁷Department of Surgery Indiana University School of Medicine Indianapolis Indiana USA.
• ⁸Center for Health Innovation and Implementation Science Indiana University School of Medicine Indianapolis Indiana USA.

Sikandar Khan, D.O., M.S. 

In addition to his role as a research scientist and co-program director of the COVID-19 recovery program for older adults with the Indiana University Center for Aging Research at Regenstrief Institute, Dr. Khan is an assistant professor of medicine and director of the Indiana University Health Intensive Care Unit (ICU) Survivor Center.

About Regenstrief Institute
Founded in 1969 in Indianapolis, the Regenstrief Institute is a local, national and global leader dedicated to a world where better information empowers people to end disease and realize true health. A key research partner to Indiana University, Regenstrief and its research scientists are responsible for a growing number of major healthcare innovations and studies. Examples range from the development of global health information technology standards that enable the use and interoperability of electronic health records to improving patient-physician communications, to creating models of care that inform clinical practice and improve the lives of patients around the globe.

Sam Regenstrief, a nationally successful entrepreneur from Connersville, Indiana, founded the institute with the goal of making healthcare more efficient and accessible for everyone. His vision continues to guide the institute’s research mission.

About IU School of Medicine
IU School of Medicine is the largest medical school in the U.S. and is annually ranked among the top medical schools in the nation by U.S. News & World Report. The school offers high-quality medical education, access to leading medical research and rich campus life in nine Indiana cities, including rural and urban locations consistently recognized for livability.