Improved discrimination and predictive ability of novel prognostic scores for long-term mortality in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis

Background and Aims

Since the adoption of novel prognostic scores, such as the iterative model for end-stage liver disease (MELD 3.0) and the gender-equity model for liver allocation (GEMA), their utility has markedly expanded to diverse clinical scenarios. However, data concerning their prognostic value in more generalized cirrhotic populations are scarce. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the MELD 3.0/GEMA-Na for long-term mortality risk stratification and refine their usage scope.

Methods

This study retrospectively reviewed 310 hospitalized patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Discrimination and stratification were compared between MELD 3.0/GEMA-Na and other scores. Validation was performed in another 120 subjects.

Results

In the investigated cohort, the median MELD-Na, MELD 3.0, and GEMA-Na were 9 (7, 12), 12 (10, 17), and 12 (9, 17), respectively. Compared to their predecessors, both MELD 3.0 and GEMA-Na models exhibited consistently better discriminative ability, especially in relation to long-term mortality. This effect was more pronounced for GEMA-Na, which was the only score to present an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve greater than 0.8 up to two years (0.807). Statistical analysis indicated that a MELD 3.0 score of 18 and a GEMA-Na score of 20 were the most optimal cutoffs to rank the risk of death, both of which were independently associated with two-year all-cause transplant-free mortality (MELD 3.0: hazard ratio: 1.13, 95% confidence interval: 1.10, 1.17; GEMA-Na: hazard ratio: 1.12, 95% confidence interval: 1.10, 1.17, both P < 0.001). Similar findings were affirmed in the validation cohort.

Conclusions

MELD 3.0 is superior to other MELD-based scores for long-term prognostication in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis, while GEMA-Na demonstrated even more accurate and better performance. The highlight of these findings lies in their consistent and steady predictive power for all-cause mortality for up to two years. However, there is still room for improvement by incorporating other predictors, such as malnutrition and body composition abnormalities.

Full text

https://www.xiahepublishing.com/2310-8819/JCTH-2025-00004

The study was recently published in the Journal of Clinical and Translational Hepatology.

The Journal of Clinical and Translational Hepatology (JCTH) is owned by the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University and published by XIA & HE Publishing Inc. JCTH publishes high quality, peer reviewed studies in the translational and clinical human health sciences of liver diseases. JCTH has established high standards for publication of original research, which are characterized by a study’s novelty, quality, and ethical conduct in the scientific process as well as in the communication of the research findings. Each issue includes articles by leading authorities on topics in hepatology that are germane to the most current challenges in the field. Special features include reports on the latest advances in drug development and technology that are relevant to liver diseases. Regular features of JCTH also include editorials, correspondences and invited commentaries on rapidly progressing areas in hepatology. All articles published by JCTH, both solicited and unsolicited, must pass our rigorous peer review process.

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