There is a nuanced history between Pakistan and India, current conflict could have significant consequences

There is an immense history behind the current conflict between Pakistan and India.  

It is important to understand this history, particularly since there are significant ramifications of escalation:  

Both states have nuclear capability. Geo-strategically, India is currently at loggerheads with China, while China has an enduring relationship with Pakistan – including the supply of the jet fighter aircraft which allegedly shot down Indian Airforce aircraft  

While India is developing into a Global Power, Pakistan is economically in the doldrums – and, ever since 1958, has been controlled by the military 

Pakistan has been involved in state-sponsored terrorism, including the terror camps India has targeted after the Pahalgam attack 

If Pakistan were to fail, this would be significant – Pakistan would then be a regional and global problem far above Afghanistan 

There is a high propensity for escalation, as both states have highly nationalistic governments, and we have already seen the introduction of new weapons technology into the conflict e.g., drones and limited missile use. 

The best method of de-escalation in this conflict would involve influential regional and global powers to counsel restraint and the urge for reciprocal attacks.  

Iran and the United States in particular are in a good position – not withstanding some recent border incidents and the new US administration.  

 
The history of conflict between Pakistan and India 
 

• Pakistan became independent in 1947 from British rule. Historically there was no historic Indian state – it was rather made up of various dynasties that rose and fell some of these extinguished by the British, e.g. the Mughals.   
   

• Pakistan was formed as a homeland for the Muslims of the Indian sub-continent though many Muslims remained in India and India has an immense population of Muslims.   
   

• An enduring problem and one that directly relates to the current hostilities is Jammu/Kashmir. Just before independence the 550 Princely States of which Kashmir was one of the largest were asked to secede independence to either India or Pakistan.   
   

• This also occurred in the wealthy Princely state of Hyderabad in Central India which India took by force when the prince failed to secede. This Prince eventually moved to Australia and is the subject of a compelling book by John Zubyrcki. Kashmir, at the time and to this day, has a majority Muslim population but at the time of Partition had a Dogra ‘Maharajah’ ruler.  
   

•  Pakistan expected Kashmir to join Pakistan – this did not happen as roughly at the same time of partition Kashmir was invaded by Tribal Raiders (Lashkars) from the former Northwest Frontier Province.   
   

• The ruler of Kashmir fearing the invasion of the Tribals called for the Indian Army to protect his state/principality. This was duly done, and the raiders were ejected.  Ever since that time the bulk of Kashmir has been under Indian control while a smaller portion has been under Pakistani control (both sides respectively refer to this as IOK Indian Occupied Kashmir and POK Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.  
   

• Both militaries are lined up against each other across the ‘Line of Control’.  A significant argument has been over the matter of plebiscite for Kashmiri’s to decide whether they wish to be with India, Pakistan or have their own independence.  
   

• The UN stated that a plebiscite would be undertaken – though it never has, and India claims that this issue was settled in the aftermath of the 1965 Indo-Pakistan War which had erupted in Kashmir after infiltration by Pakistan Special Force.  
   

• After the 1971 war in which India soundly defeated Pakistan it also was a significant player in the establishment of Bangladesh (which was formerly East Pakistan). 

Ever since 1947 there have been wars. There were wars in 1948, 1965, 1971 as well as serious terrorist and disguised Pakistan military attacks, e.g., Kargil in 1999, as well as the attacks against the Indian Parliament 2001 and the Mumbai attack in 2008.  

These attacks have incurred large death counts including foreigners and Australians. 

Associate Professor Mark Briskey from Murdoch University’s School of Law and Criminology’s PhD was on the foundations of Pakistan’s strategic culture, and he undertook long-term postings with the Australian Federal Police to Pakistan, where he was involved in transnational crime and national security matters.