A new “geography of fire” defines southern wildfire risk

In the Southeast, wildfire risk is increasing. Fire suppression has allowed fuel to accumulate in forests, droughts are becoming more common, and communities are developing more homes and infrastructure in forested areas. Policymakers and managers therefore need updated tools for strategic fire management in the South. 

This collection of research is by and for fire professionals. Through their working group—made up of regional fire experts, researchers, and forest management professionals—the researchers were able to tailor the work to the needs of managers and high-risk communities.

USDA Forest Service researcher Lars Pomara, who managed the project, explains, “The working group made strong contributions in developing and communicating the science, making sure that we’re delivering products that are easy to use and meet the users’ needs.”

In one study, led by ORISE researcher Nicholas Gould, the team collected more than 70 datasets on fire and smoke, community and social vulnerabilities, forest conditions, climate, land use, and other factors that influence wildfire risk. Data sources include Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis, the Centers for Disease Control, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and other research organizations. 

With this data, researchers mapped wildfire risk to infrastructure, resources, and people across the Southeast, accounting for differing levels of social vulnerability to fire’s effects. 

Pomara explains, “The social vulnerability aspect is driven by wanting to understand what makes people more or less vulnerable to wildfire. We didn’t want to look at risk in a general way, but really define who is most at risk.” 

Not everyone, even in the same area, experiences equal risk from wildfire. For example, disabled people may be unable to evacuate without assistance. Families with fewer financial resources are more likely to risk staying to avoid costs of evacuation-related travel. 

This analysis was also unique in that it included risk of smoke exposure. Every forest landscape in the region was evaluated for its potential to send smoke at harmful concentrations to populated areas if a wildfire occurs.

In another study, led by ORISE researcher Sandhya Nepal, the team evaluated how much of that risk to people, infrastructure, and resources could be reduced by implementing repeated prescribed fire. Intentional, controlled burning is an effective management tool for reducing the potential for large, intense wildfires by consuming some of the woody debris on the forest floor. 

The potential for risk reduction generally overlapped with highest risk areas, such as parts of Florida, the Atlantic and Gulf coastal plains, and parts of southeastern Texas. However, there were some interesting exceptions. Mountain forests in the Ozarks and southern Appalachians often have lower risk of high-intensity wildfire because of their wetter, cooler climates. However, these forests often have a lot of fuel for wildfires and therefore can benefit from prescribed fire.

The findings of both papers are accessible through user-friendly story maps, developed in collaboration with Texas A&M Forest Service, Timmons Group, and the Southern Group of State Foresters. These tools serve as guides to understanding wildfire risk across the Southeast.

According to Pomara, “This is one of the most collaborative projects I’ve been involved with. To the extent that this is a well-communicated project, available outside of the research bubble, I think that can be credited to our partners.”