The new prediction method was tested with satellite remote sensing and species distribution data over 20 years in Andalusia, making possible the development of more dynamic and integrative conservation area prioritisation indicators

Maintaining the quality of habitats is essential to allow for the survival of species that live in them, and and so that ecosystems can continue to benefit society with all they have to offer. Properly protecting biodiversity also means properly identifying which areas are the most important to conserve.

The definition of protected natural areas in Andalusia (almost 3 million hectares, or around 30% of the entire region) was carried out taking into account specific considerations at given times. Now, research carried out at the University of Cordoba proposes a new tool, based on satellite data and species distribution models over time, to determine those areas whose conservation should be prioritized. According to this tool, tested on six key species of the Andalusian ecosystem (lynx, imperial eagle, Spanish fir, Andalusian oak, Iberian midwife toad, and Carbonell's wall lizard), most of Andalusia's protected areas (80%) and the species studied suffered a decline in habitat quality during the first two decades of the 21st century.

This new method to identify which areas should be prioritized for conservation, forming part of the doctoral thesis by UCO researcher Antonio Velasco Rodríguez, features two fundamental components: satellite images, which report on the functioning of Andalusian ecosystems, and the Habitat Availability Index, a score that indicates the likelihood that a certain species lives in that area, obtained by cross-referencing remote sensing data with field observations.

In addition to these two elements, the method boasts a foundation that ensures its greater effectiveness: having obtained the data over the course of 20 years. Obtaining data over a long period of time, and not at specific points, as has been previously been done, is what has made it possible to have a more dynamic tool integrating the possible areas whose conservation should be prioritized in the long term.

Thus, the inclusion of the Habitat Availability Index for each of the 20 years, and each of the six species in a specific software (MARXAN) program, has made it possible to see which areas are priorities for conservation, and those that currently enjoy legal protection (in National or Natural Parks, for example), and also the areas around them. In this way, the study proposes a dynamic approach to conservation planning that takes into account annual changes in habitat quality.

"It’s a more integrative tool because we do not have fixed points. Rather, we see the evolution and changes that are taking place in complex natural systems," explained Salvador Arenas Castro, a professor in the Ecology Area at the UCO and the advisor on the thesis on which the research is based.

Although the tool has been tested with six emblematic Andalusian species, the research team says that the method published in the journal Conservation Biology can be used for other areas and species, and hopes that it can be used by political administrators to make informed decisions about biodiversity protection.

Reference

Velasco-Rodriguez, A., Regos, A., González, I. C., Sillero, N., & Arenas-Castro, S. (2025). Habitat dynamics of flagship species for conservation prioritization in southern Europe. Conservation Biology, e70067. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.70067