Couples with opposing political views face higher risk of separation

A recent study by researchers at the University of Padua and the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) has revealed that political differences between partners can significantly increase the risk of separation. Using long-term data from UK couples, the researchers found that those with different party preferences were substantially more likely to separate than those with the same political beliefs. The risk is particularly high when there are differences of opinion on Brexit.

Political polarization is a growing concern in many Western countries. It raises from the stark divide between the Democrats and Republicans in the US, to the rivalries between the Tories and Labour in the UK. While these divisions play out at the macro level, in their latest study, researchers Bruno Arpino (Professor at the University of Padua, Italy) and Alessandro Di Nallo (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)) examined how these divisions manifest at the personal level. They investigated whether the likelihood of separation increases among couples when they hold opposing political views.

"There’s been extensive research about what causes couples to break up – factors like age differences, ethnicity or personality differences are often cited” explains Alessandro Di Nallo. “But political views should also be considered and this has never been studied before. Our research fills this gap, showing that political preferences can play a critical role in relationship stability.”

For the study, the researchers examined the separation rates of couples in the United Kingdom, using over thirty years of data from the British Household Panel Study and the UK Household Longitudinal Study. 'The United Kingdom is the perfect test case for this because of the wealth of data. As part of the household survey, couples are asked every year which party they would vote for and how they would vote in a Brexit referendum. Using these two questions, as well as questions about political preferences, we analyzed the risk of separation,' explains Di Nallo.

How Political Preferences Shape Relationship Stability

Analysis of the long-term data shows that couples with the same party preferences are significantly less likely to separate than those with different political beliefs. For example, the annual separation rate for partners with the same party affiliation is 0.77%, compared to 1.06% for couples with different party. The risk of separation is 38% higher for couples with unequal political views, such as a Tory-Labour pairing.

Brexit opinions also play a significant role. Couples who agreed on Brexit — whether 'Remain' or 'Leave' — have an average annual probability of separation of about 1.1%. However, the probability jumped to 1.8% for couples with different attitudes. Remarkably, the effect of political differences on relationships is as strong as, if not stronger than, the effects of religious or educational differences.

Interestingly, the study found no significant differences in the risk of separation between the individual parties as long as the partners shared the same views. However, couples in which one or both partners do not belong to a political party or lack a clear opinion on Brexit are more likely to separate. The researchers conclude that shared core values can stabilize partnerships, whereas significant political differences can increase the risk of separation.

Political Polarization: A Challenge for Relationships and Society

Arpino and Di Nallo’s study bridges the gap between political and demographic research, revealing how political preferences influences family dynamics. Their findings illustrate how political polarization at the macro level impacts the stability of partnerships at the micro level. “When individuals with similar political views form relationships, it can reinforce societal divisions” notes Di Nallo. The Brexit period exemplified this, as couples with different political views experienced more challenges.

Major political events significantly impact family cohesion, demonstrating that political and social attitudes are intertwined. “For instance, public perception of same-sex couples became more positive when same-sex marriage was legalized in the USA. Politics influence families. Regardless of how politics are conducted, it influences values, families, and society as a whole," explains Di Nallo.