How has agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian evolved over 20 years?

Against the backdrop of global warming, agricultural activities represent one of the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for approximately 9%–14% of global total emissions. The changing patterns and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions (ACE) are not only critical to the carbon balance of agricultural ecosystems but also serve as a key basis for formulating carbon reduction policies and promoting sustainable agricultural development. As a province with a dynamic economy along China’s southeastern coast and more than 80% mountainous terrain, Fujian has limited cultivated land resources but high dependence on material inputs for agricultural production. What unique spatial-temporal evolution patterns characterize its agricultural carbon emissions? How can carbon reduction goals be achieved while ensuring food security and agricultural development?

Professor Zhiqiang Chen from Fujian Normal University and colleagues provide a scientific answer to these questions through a study covering 2002–2022. The relevant paper has been published in Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering (DOI: 10.15302/J-FASE-2024594).

This study employs the internationally recognized IPCC carbon emission calculation framework, combines the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model to decompose driving factors, uses the Tapio decoupling model to analyze the relationship between emissions and economic development, and introduces the GM (1,1) grey model to predict future trends, revealing the dynamic characteristics of Fujian’s agricultural carbon emissions from multiple dimensions.

The study shows that agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian exhibited a “double decline” trend from 2002 to 2022: total emissions fluctuated downward from approximately 17.82 million tons in 2002 to about 14.62 million tons in 2022, a cumulative reduction of 3.22 million tons with an annual average decline of 0.9%; carbon emission intensity plummeted from 2.68 tons/10,000 yuan to 0.47 tons/10,000 yuan, a decrease of 82.46% with an annual average decline of 4.12%. This change is closely related to Fujian’s implementation of the “one control, two reductions, three basics” policy and the promotion of ecological agriculture.

In terms of emission structure, agricultural material inputs constitute the largest carbon source, accounting for 40% annually on average; farmland utilization and livestock breeding follow, accounting for 34.1% and 25.9%, respectively. Specifically, fertilizer use contributes 56.3% of emissions from agricultural material inputs, late rice cultivation accounts for 76.9% of farmland utilization emissions, and pig farming represents 60.6% of livestock emissions—these key links provide clear directions for targeted carbon reduction.

Spatially, agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian exhibit a “higher in the west, lower in the east” pattern. In 2002, Zhangzhou, with its abundant cultivated land and large-scale traditional agriculture, was the only high-emission region; by 2012, Nanping, Sanming, and Longyan in the west became new high-emission hubs due to fragmented farmland, greater reliance on material inputs such as fertilizers, and concentrated large-scale livestock farming; by 2022, while this pattern persisted, emissions in major western cities decreased by 11%, 5.2%, 24.6%, and 19% compared to 2012, accounting for 70% of the province’s total emissions, indicating that green agricultural policies are gradually taking effect. Economically developed regions in the east, such as Fuzhou and Xiamen, have significantly lower emissions due to limited cultivated land and high agricultural modernization levels.

Further decomposition of driving factors reveals that improvements in agricultural production efficiency are the core driver of emission reduction—through agricultural mechanization, application of green technologies, and large-scale operations, material consumption per unit output has decreased, contributing 56.3% of the emission reduction. Additionally, the proportion of rural population declined from 54.3% in 2002 to 29.9% in 2022, and the share of agricultural output in regional GDP dropped from 25.2% to 10.4%, with industrial structure optimization also aiding emission reduction. However, regional economic growth and urbanization have become major pressure sources for increased emissions.

Notably, agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian have achieved a “strong decoupling” from economic growth: from 2002 to 2022, agricultural output value grew at an annual average of 7%, while carbon emissions declined by 2.3% annually, showing a benign “one increase, one decrease” relationship. Projections indicate that if current trends continue, Fujian’s agricultural carbon emissions will decrease by 7.1%–20.5% by 2030 compared to 2022, and by 15.2%–40.5% by 2040, demonstrating significant carbon reduction potential.

The study suggests that future measures such as promoting organic fertilizers, optimizing rice planting patterns, and improving the resource utilization rate of livestock manure can further reduce emissions from agricultural material inputs, farmland, and breeding links; formulating zonal carbon reduction strategies targeting east-west differences will also facilitate the province’s agricultural green transition.