University of Minnesota study finds COVID-19 wastewater surveillance accurately predicts community infections

MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL (06/23/2025) — Published in The Journal of Infectious Diseases, a University of Minnesota research team demonstrated that measuring SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater continues to accurately predict COVID-19 infections in a community. 

Between January 2022 and August 2024, the research team examined the correlation between symptomatic COVID-19 in healthcare employees and levels of SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19 — in wastewater. They found that SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater accurately predicted subsequent COVID-19 case counts the following week in the community.

“We learned during 2020 that rising SARS-CoV-2 virus in wastewater provided a two week heads up of coming COVID visits to hospitals and clinics,” said Timothy Shacker, MD, a professor at the University of Minnesota Medical School and an infectious disease physician with M Health Fairview. “This ongoing work demonstrates the continued importance of wastewater surveillance to public health planning for our state’s hospitals and clinics.”

The University of Minnesota continues to monitor COVID-19, influenza, RSV, mpox and measles in the wastewater through its Wastewater Surveillance Study. The research team suggests that future work focuses on integrating wastewater surveillance with other epidemiological data sources to develop real-time decision-making frameworks that support public health responses to emerging outbreaks.

This work was supported through a contract with the Minnesota Department of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

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