Scientists rank Russian regions by climate risk levels

Researchers from HSE University and the Russian Academy of Sciences have assessed the levels of climate risks across Russian regions. Using five key climate risks, associated with heatwaves, water stress, wildfires, extreme precipitation, and permafrost degradation, the scientists ranked the country’s regions according to their need for adaptation to climate change. Krasnoyarsk Krai, Irkutsk Region, and Sverdlovsk Region rank among the highest for four of the five climate risks considered. The study has been published in Science of the Total Environment.

Climate change can shift the geographical distribution of natural hazards—such as wildfires, extreme precipitation, and melting glaciers—which in turn impacts regional economies and the well-being of the population. An accurate assessment of climate risks is essential for effective adaptation to climate change.

A team of researchers from HSE University and the Russian Academy of Science's Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics and Institute of Geography has proposed a new approach to climate risk assessment. The scientists identified five key climate risks, associated with heatwaves, water stress, wildfires, extreme precipitation, and permafrost degradation, and, using various indicators, assessed the current and future hazard each phenomenon poses to the region, as well as the region’s exposure and vulnerability to these risks.

'For each risk, we created a ranking of Russian regions and pinpointed the areas where that risk is most severe. For example, the risk of heatwaves impacting on urban population is highest in the regions of the middle belt and the southern part of European Russia. The impact of water stress on agriculture is most pronounced in the south of European Russia, the Volga region, and the southern Urals. Central Siberian regions face the highest risk of wildfires. Influence of extreme precipitation is particularly common in the southern Far East and in some parts of European Russia, while the risk of permafrost degradation is characteristic of Russia’s northeastern regions,' explains Alexander Chernokulsky, Associate Professor at the HSE Faculty of Geography and Geoinformation Technologies, Deputy Director of the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and primary author of the study.

The scientists identified nine regions that rank in the top 25% for three climate risks: Amur, Arkhangelsk, Leningrad, and Moscow Regions; Zabaikalsky, Krasnodar, and Khabarovsk Krais; and the Republics of Bashkortostan and Komi. Three regions—Krasnoyarsk Krai, Irkutsk Region, and Sverdlovsk Region—ranked in the top 25% for four climate risks simultaneously.

When compiling the ranking, the scientists also considered irregular distribution of climate hazards given information on exposure within each risk.

'For example, population density was considered when estimating the impact of heat and cold waves. The distribution of forests was taken into account when studying wildfire impacts, and the extent of agricultural land was used to assess drought-related risks. Many of Russia’s regions are comparable in size to large countries and are climatically diverse and unevenly developed. Therefore, it is important to assess climate risks primarily in the areas where people live, forests grow, and fields are cultivated,' says Alexander Sheludkov, Associate Professor at the Faculty of Geography and Geoinformation Technologies of HSE University.

The resulting ranking can be used to inform the development of regional climate adaptation plans and to guide the allocation of funding for adaptation measures.

'Ideally, the regions most affected by climate change should be prioritised when planning adaptation measures. Our study's findings can help identify the most significant combination of risks for a given area, and which risk component—hazard, exposure, or vulnerability—contributes most to the overall risk. This makes it possible to use our approach to refine existing climate adaptation plans and to select the most effective adaptation measures and strategies,' says Igor Makarov, Head of the Laboratory for Economics of Climate Change at HSE University and co-author of the study.