Fully possible to make residential construction more environmentally friendly

Residential construction requires large amounts of energy and materials, but there is significant potential for savings.

Postdoctoral fellow Şahin Akın and his research colleagues at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) have taken a closer look at resource use in the housing sector in West Asia and North Africa with a view to 2050.

Their results show that it is possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in this area by up to 56 per cent over the next 25 years.

“We investigated resource efficiency in nearly 1000 different types of residential housing in 19 countries in West Asia and North Africa (WN) and looked at various possible scenarios for the next 25 years,” he said.

These are areas with large economic differences, where the effects of climate change are strongly felt. 

Significant emissions reductions are possible

Residential construction accounts for 21 per cent of the global energy use. Materials used for building homes account for 30 per cent of the carbon footprint of the world’s total material production.

Akın focused specifically on the characteristics of three types of housing: detached houses, multi-family houses and high-rise/apartment buildings. The work also included informal housing, because the majority of the countries are quite poor, and informal settlements make up a significant part of the total housing stock. Although they do not use much energy, they do use materials.

Akın and the research team developed a dynamic stock model using data from these housing archetypes. The model then evaluated ten future scenarios, involving six individual strategies and four combinations.

Countries that have not been investigated before

“In our case, we focused on regions in North Africa and West Asia that had not been studied before, as most research on this topic generally takes place in Western countries,” Akın said.

The countries studied were the Caucasus countries, including Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia, and also very resource-rich countries on the Arabian Peninsula, such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman. In addition, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco and Turkey were investigated, the latter of which is probably more Western in its approach and quite different in its strategy.

All of these are areas where the building methods have been adapted over generations to both the climate and the economy by using local materials and solutions that provide natural cooling and ventilation without the use of energy.

However, things are changing, especially in the Gulf countries due to their economic growth. This in turn influences building styles and lifestyles, entailing a significant rise in energy consumption through Western building styles, increased use of concrete, air conditioning and higher living standards.

Concrete is a major culprit, and the energy used for cooling increases emissions.

How can greenhouse gas emissions be reduced?

Akın has investigated various scenarios that could reduce energy use, material consumption and other related greenhouse gas emissions in these countries.  The results from the model show that a combined strategy can reduce operational emissions by 60 per cent and material-related emissions by 47 per cent, resulting in a total greenhouse gas reduction of 56 per cent by 2050.

“This is surprisingly good,” said Akın.

As a starting point, Akın established a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, where no measures are taken at all. The results for this scenario are quite discouraging; if we continue as before, emissions levels will increase. In these regions, a population boom is also expected by 2050, which alone will require more and larger houses.

“And assuming that people in the future want to live much more comfortably, those who can afford it will move from informal housing to formal residential buildings. This will also create enormous energy and material demands, and they will likely switch to electricity-powered air conditioning, as the old building traditions with natural ventilation and materials that keep houses cool are abandoned,” explained Akın.

Tested 10 different scenarios

In addition, Akın tested 10 resource efficiency scenarios focusing on materials, energy, fuel and energy preferences. They also studied various combinations of the strategies.

Since the majority of the countries are located in a desert belt, it gets quite hot. When it came to cooling houses, they tested reflective white paint on all envisioned new buildings that would reflect the sun’s rays.

They also tested heat pumps and controlled lighting, as well as more environmentally friendly concrete.

One test involved reducing the number of square metres per person, as houses have grown in size in line with economic prosperity.

Each combination had varying effects on energy consumption, material use and greenhouse gas emissions depending on the type and country, while the combined scenario showed the greatest reduction. A combination of all the measures provided the best effect for the entire region, with a potential emissions reduction of 56 per cent.

Akın stresses that this is just an exercise conducted in a model based on housing types that are representative of the region in question.

“But once you have the knowledge, you can also make informed choices,” he added.

Involving the local population

Akın believes it will take time to implement the necessary measures, but emphasizes the importance of involving the local population at all levels.

“I think local experts should develop solutions tailored to their specific building stock. I am of the opinion that they know their buildings better than we do, and they also know the local inhabitants. They are familiar with their habits, building traditions and lifestyles,” said Akın.

He also believes that AI will be a useful tool for such plans in the future. Regarding the actual results from the model, he is surprised to see the scale of the emissions reductions it is possible to achieve.

“I didn’t expect that, to be honest. Because the population is growing and there will be many new houses. In our scenarios, we stopped the construction of new informal houses and replaced them with detached houses or multi-family houses, and no renovation measures were included. So, between 2024 and 2050, we built houses according to the population increase. I expected a smaller emissions reduction, so a 56 per cent reduction in land-based emissions is pretty good.”

Reference:

Şahin Akın, Fabio Carrer, Edgar Hertwich, Future resource efficiency scenarios for the Western Asian and Northern African residential buildings: An exploratory study,
Sustainable Cities and Society, Volume 125, 2025, 106351, ISSN 2210-6707,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2025.106351