Partisan hostility, not just policy, drives U.S. protests

Partisan animosity is a powerful driver of protest participation -- sometimes nearly matching or even exceeding concern about the actual issues, according to a new study published in the journal Social Forces.

The research, conducted by political scientist Seth Warner at the University of Connecticut, analyzed three nationally representative surveys fielded between 2014 and 2022. Each focused on a different protest movement: Black Lives Matter, the climate movement, and the Tea Party.

Warner matched survey questions to these movements’ core grievances - for example, beliefs about racial inequality for BLM and distrust of government for the Tea Party. He then collected survey responses about people’s feelings toward the major political parties.

In all three analyses, hostility toward the opposing party was a major factor, often as large or larger than issue concern. For climate protests, animosity toward the Republican Party was an even stronger predictor than concern about climate change itself.

“Partisan animosity isn’t just background noise, it’s a key reason people show up to protest,” says Warner. “People are mobilized by anger at the other side, not just by passion for an issue.”

The study also found that where people live matters. Americans in counties with higher overall partisan animosity were more likely to protest, regardless of their individual views. Interestingly, being exposed to hostility from out-party members seemed to motivate people even more than being surrounded by like-minded allies.

“Living in a politically charged environment shapes how threatened people feel, and that sense of threat pushes them to act,” Warner explains.

Warner’s work suggests that the recent surge in protests is linked not just to issues like police reform or climate change, but to a broader climate of partisan hostility. It offers a new way for scholars and the public to think about political participation in the U.S.

“This challenges the idea that protests are only about policy change,” Warner says. “In today’s polarized America, protesting can also be a way to stand against the other party.”

The full study, “Partisan Animosity and Protest Participation in the United States,” is published in Social Forces and available online at https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/soaf066.