Death count for 2025 LA County wildfires likely hundreds higher than official records show

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Thursday, August 7, 2025

Contact:
Michael Saunders, msaunder@bu.edu

Jillian McKoy, jpmckoy@bu.edu

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Death Count for 2025 LA County Wildfires Likely Hundreds Higher than Official Records Show

An estimated 440 deaths are attributable to the Los Angeles wildfires that set the area ablaze in January 2025—a much higher toll than the 31 deaths reported in Los Angeles County records, according to the first-ever study estimating excess mortality during that period.

Official California records indicate that the devastating series of wildfires that occurred in Los Angeles County in January 2025 resulted in 31 direct deaths, but a new study by Boston University School of Public Health (BUSPH) and the University of Helsinki indicates that the actual death toll is nearly 15 times higher.

Published in JAMA, the study estimated excess mortality in L.A. County from January 5 to February 1, and found that the wildfires contributed to at least 440 deaths during this period. The study is the first to estimate excess mortality associated with these fires, which quickly became one of the worst natural disasters in the state’s history.

The two largest fires, the Palisades Fire in Pacific Palisades, Calif., and the Eaton Fire in Altadena, Calif., ignited on January 7, and spread rapidly, burning more than 50,000 acres and destroying nearly 16,000 homes and businesses before they were fully contained on January 31.

The additional 409 deaths that were excluded from official death records likely resulted from partially attributable factors such as lung or heart conditions due to increased exposure to air pollution from smoke and burning objects, as well as indirect factors such as disruptions in other critical healthcare or mental health emergencies, the researchers say. As forecasters warn of another above-average summer wildfire season, these findings underscore the need for cities to improve mortality surveillance during and after extreme weather events.

Dr. Andrew Stokes, associate professor of global health at BUSPH and senior author of the study, emphasized the urgency of moving beyond traditional disaster metrics.

““Official death tolls often miss the broader health consequences of disasters like wildfires. With this study, we aimed to deliver a timely, data-driven estimate of the true toll of the LA wildfires-one that includes the hidden impacts of wildfire smoke, disrupted care, and system strain,” says Stokes. “We hope these estimates can be used to guide emergency preparedness, protect vulnerable populations, and ensure that policy and resource allocation decisions reflect the full magnitude of harm.” 

The researchers calculated these estimates using novel excess mortality modeling that they have applied in previous research to assess excess deaths associated with COVID-19. These methods enabled the team to evaluate immediate changes in county-level mortality relative to trends prior to the wildfires. Analyzing weekly all-cause death counts from January 5 to February 1, 2025, the researchers observed 6,371 actual deaths in 2025, compared to 5,931 expected deaths, which reflects a 7-percent increase in mortality as the fires swept through the county.

The team compared these estimates to excess death totals during the same time period in 2018, 2019, and 2024 (excluding 2020-2023, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic), and performed seven different sensitivity analyses to confirm the strength of their results.

“Our study demonstrates that wildfires can have large short-term mortality impacts,” says study lead author Dr. Eugenio Paglino, postdoctoral researcher at the Helsinki Institute for Demography and Population Health at the University of Helsinki. “Beyond providing precise estimates for the LA wildfires, these findings also support the idea that direct estimates of fatalities, based on cause-of-death coding, should be complemented with indirect estimates, based on statistical methods, to gain a more complete picture of the mortality consequences of wildfires and other natural disasters.” 

The wildfires were exacerbated by a perfect storm of factors fueled by worsening climate change, including drought conditions, dry vegetation, low humidity, and high winds in the region that exceeded 90 miles per hour. At least 179,000 people were forced to quickly evacuate from their homes and many who became stuck in gridlock had to abandon their cars on the road as flames advanced.

Understanding the true mortality and other health risks associated with these extreme events can inform current climate action and response plans, as North America continues to experience an above-average number of wildfires this summer, particularly in Canada, Arizona, Utah, and Oregon. Exposure to fine particulate matter and other toxins in wildfire smoke has been linked to a number of health risks and respiratory conditions, including decreased lung function, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). In the L.A. County fires, residents were likely also exposed to asbestos, microplastics, and other chemicals from burning vehicles, furniture, and other objects.

"Wildfires, heat waves, and severe storms are increasing in frequency and intensity, threatening the hard-won gains of air quality improvements from effective regulations over the past several decades,” says Dr. Gregory Wellenius, professor of environmental health and director of the Center for Climate and Health at BUSPH, which was not involved with the study. “These extreme events could expose tens of millions of Americans to dangerous levels of air pollution on a recurring basis. This study reminds us that official figures frequently fail to capture the full extent of the harm and loss caused by these disasters.”

The indirect effects from the L.A. County fires are likely even larger than the results suggest, and the health burdens and outcomes may not be felt equally across affected populations, Dr. Stokes adds. Much of the media coverage of the wildfires focused on the destruction of affluent, celebrity-filled neighborhoods, but the fires destroyed communities of all demographics—and the effects from smoke likely reached areas far beyond L.A. County.

“Our findings reveal that the true human toll of wildfires far exceeds the visible destruction. The lives lost are not just statistics — they were grandparents, neighbors, workers, and caregivers,” says Stokes. “By uncovering these hidden deaths, so often left uncounted in the wake of disaster, we hope our estimates will inform more equitable, health-focused responses to our growing climate threats.”

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About Boston University School of Public Health

Founded in 1976, Boston University School of Public Health is one of the top ten ranked schools of public health in the world. It offers master's- and doctoral-level education in public health. The faculty in six departments conduct policy-changing public health research around the world, with the mission of improving the health of populations—especially the disadvantaged, underserved, and vulnerable—locally and globally.