Will climate change promote the spread of Dengue fever through Western Europe?

Most people recover from Dengue fever, which is caused by a virus transmitted from the Asian tiger mosquito, but some infected individuals experience serious bleeding, a sudden drop in blood pressure, and even death. Although Dengue fever has long been recognized as a disease of the tropics and sub-tropics, a study published in Global Change Biology reveals that it is likely to spread increasingly northward and through Western Europe as climate change expands the Asian tiger mosquito’s habitat. 

The mosquito lays its eggs in water where, with sufficient temperature, larvae develop and give rise to flying bloodsucking adults. After arriving in Albania, in Southeast Europe, in 1979, it spread through Southwest Europe and now is expanding northward in France. Using modeling and observations of recent spread, investigators determined that with climate change conditions, major Western European cities—including London, Vienna, Strasburg, and Frankfurt—would be well suited to the Asian tiger mosquito.  

The team notes that although the mosquito is not in these cities yet, its rate of northward spread in France has been accelerating from about 6 km per year in 2006 to 20 km per year in 2024. 

“Extrapolating from the results, it is estimated that the mosquito could establish itself in northern France within a decade, from where it could easily reach London—which is already climatically suitable for hosting this vector,” said corresponding author Andrea Radici, PhD, of the Université de Montpellier, in France. 

In addition to Dengue fever, the Asian tiger mosquito also transmits Zika and chikungunya. 

URL upon publication: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.70414

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Global Change Biology is an environmental change journal dedicated to shaping the future and solving the world's most challenging problems by tackling sustainability, climate change and environmental protection, food and water safety and provision, as well as global health. The journal exists to promote the understanding of the impacts of global change on biological systems and solutions.

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