The year is 2050. Sustainably sourced fish and seafood have replaced 70 percent of red meat consumption worldwide, and seaweed is a staple vegetable for millions. Food waste has been reduced by 75 percent thanks to ambitious new laws and behavioral change, and half of all land degraded by unsustainable agricultural practices has been successfully restored.
Is this a pipe dream or a feasible future reality?
These goals are reviewed by an international, interdisciplinary team of researchers, led by KAUST scientists. The team outlines how to meet the proposed targets and achieve the goals of the Rio Conventions by “bending the curve” of land degradation and transforming global food systems[1].
“Land lies at the heart of everything we depend on. It feeds our communities, supports rich ecosystems, and helps keep the climate in balance. But the way we’re degrading land today puts all of that at risk,” says KAUST’s Fernando Maestre. “This damage doesn’t happen in isolation. It fuels a chain reaction of growing global challenges — from food and water shortages to displacement, social unrest, and deepening inequality.”
Feeding a global population of more than eight billion is placing extreme pressure on Earth’s land and aquatic ecosystems. The three Rio Conventions, agreed at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, advocate for balanced global systems that protect and sustain the natural world.
While preventing and reversing land degradation is a key goal of the U.N. Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), continued population growth means that global food production will need to increase by an estimated 35-56 percent by 2050.
“Tackling the land crisis while ensuring sustainable food for all demands a strategic, integrated approach that connects environmental health with how we grow and consume food,” Maestre notes. “We need clear targets and actionable solutions.”
The team calls for restoring half of all degraded farmland through sustainable land management practices to reverse decades of soil erosion, nutrient depletion, and the intensive use of machinery, pesticides, and fertilizers — particularly on large industrial farms.
However, smallholdings and family farms, which make up the majority of farms worldwide, often rely on local traditions to keep their land viable. Supporting these farms to diversify, build resilience, and adopt sustainable land management practices at scale is essential. “Empowering smallholder farmers with secure land rights, fair market access, and modern, sustainable agricultural tools can significantly boost their productivity and income,” says Maestre.
The team also proposes restoring half of all degraded non-agricultural land — 9.87 million square kilometers — by 2050. This will require equitable and inclusive engagement with all stakeholders, along with the integration of scientific, traditional, and local knowledge.
With global diets projected to require a shift away from carbon-intensive red meats and processed foods by 2050, the research team recommends substituting 70 percent of red meat intake with fish and seafood, and replacing 10 percent of vegetable consumption with seaweed.
Integrating marine and land-based food production requires careful consideration to avoid transferring environmental pressures from land to sea. Supporting this transition will require financial incentives, investment in infrastructure and transportation of marine foodstuffs, and technological support for local communities. The researchers acknowledge that meat-rich diets should be retained in lower-income countries and for specific population groups to ensure overall health and nutrition.
Currently, one-third of all food produced each year is wasted, representing US$1 trillion in losses and the use of 1.4 billion hectares of land. To reduce food waste by 75 percent by 2050, the KAUST-led team calls for coordinated efforts across both production and consumption. These include banning contracts that require aesthetically pleasing fruit and vegetables, investing in long-term storage solutions, and encouraging farmers to grow crops suited to local environmental conditions.
Maestre adds: “To tackle the land crisis and feed a growing population, we need a united, strategic approach that connects how we use land with how we produce food. Strengthening cooperation between global environmental agreements should drive bold action.”
Reference
- Maestre, F.T., Guirado, E., Armenteras, D., Beck, H.E., AlShalan, M. bint S., Al-Saud, N. bint T., Chami, R., Fu, B., Gichenje, H., Huber-Sannwald, E., Speranza, C.I., Martínez-Valderrama, J., McCabe, M.F., Orr, B.J., Tang, T., Metternicht, G., Miess, M., Reynolds, J.F., Stringer, L.C., Wada, Y., & Duarte, C.M. Bending the curve of land degradation to achieve global environmental goals. Nature 644, 347–355 (2025).| article
Journal
Nature