A systems-oriented review of China’s wind and solar power development toward carbon neutrality

Decarbonizing the energy system is central to addressing climate change. China has pledged to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, yet its long-standing reliance on coal-fired power poses significant challenges for the transition. In recent years, however, wind and solar power have expanded rapidly. By the first quarter of 2025, their combined installed capacity had reached 1,482 GW, surpassing coal power for the first time. As the carbon neutrality target advances, wind and solar are expected to become the backbone of the power system, though they remain constrained by technological efficiency, variability in natural resources, and system flexibility. Looking forward, technological innovation and integrated system planning will be essential to enhance the reliability and cost-effectiveness of wind and solar energy.

This review systematically examines the development trajectories of wind power, photovoltaics (PV), and concentrated solar power (CSP) in China, analyzes their technological strengths, key challenges, and policy drivers, and outlines pathways toward building a sustainable and low-carbon power system. The research team concludes with an outlook on the development prospects of wind and solar energy technologies prior to 2060.

Resource endowments vary by region: onshore wind and CSP dominate the northwest, offshore wind leads in the southeast, while distributed PV expands in central and eastern provinces. To address intermittency and regional imbalance, China is accelerating ultra-high-voltage transmission, storage deployment, smart grid innovation, and demand-side management to enhance system flexibility.

Wind power continues to scale up, with average turbine capacity projected to exceed 8 MW onshore and 17 MW offshore by 2035. By 2024, cumulative wind installations reached 521 GW, accounting for 46% of the global total. LCOE has fallen sharply—70% for onshore and 56% for offshore—since the mid-2000s, and is projected to decline to 0.10–0.20 RMB/kWh by 2060.

Solar PV remains globally dominant, with cumulative installations of 886 GW by 2024, representing 41.3% of the world total. Module prices in China dropped to 0.84 RMB/W in 2024, underpinning the global cost advantage. By 2060, both centralized and distributed PV LCOE are expected to fall below 0.15 RMB/kWh.

Concentrated solar power (CSP), though smaller in scale, offers unique storage capability, complementing variable wind and PV generation. With a domestic localization rate above 95%, CSP costs are projected to fall to 0.35–0.45 RMB/kWh by 2050–2060.

Looking ahead, China’s roadmap foresees wind and solar capacity rising to 2,200–2,400 GW by 2025–2030, then expanding to 4,700–6,731 GW by 2030–2050, and exceeding 7,600 GW by 2060. Experts highlight that beyond meeting national energy goals, China’s renewable expansion will serve as a global driver of decarbonization, with smart, integrated wind–solar systems forming the backbone of a sustainable energy future.

Other contributors include Dan Li, Haiyan Qin, Guiyong Yu, Hua Jiang, Xiaohui Zhao, Yong Luo, Jijiang He, Yang Yu, Yunxia Zhang, Qing Wang, Haixia Wang, Zhouyi Liao, Hongyan Guo, Heng Sha, Shi Chen, Chaojun Li, Jiaxing Wang, Chongyu Zhang, Bokun Zhan, Xin Xia, Junqing Zheng, Dan Chen, Jiatong Li, Tianyu Zhang, Hualin Bai, Jie Liao, Lifang Ma, Wenbin Yang, Rongsong Zou, Shaoqing Bian, Kebin He.

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 72025401, 72140003, and 72243007), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2022YFC3702902 and 2022YFC3702900), the Carbon Neutrality and Energy System Transformation (CNEST) Program, the Comprehensive Report on Renewable Energy of Wind and Solar in China project of the Energy Foundation China, and a research project of the Research Center for Green Economy and Sustainable Development at Tsinghua University.