New open-source tool quantifies uncertainty in green-hydrogen economics

Research Background
Traditional LCC studies deliver single-point cost figures that mask the volatility of emerging technologies. For PEMWE plants, two dominant sources of uncertainty exist:

1. Capital expenditure (CAPEX) – dominated by scarce raw materials such as iridium and high-performance membranes.
2. Operational expenditure (OPEX) – driven by long-term electricity prices that fluctuate with geopolitical events, market structure and climate policy.

Research Content
Using a bottom-up, net-present-value framework compliant with ISO 15686-5, the authors integrated Monte-Carlo simulation (via the Monaco package) and the Prophet forecasting algorithm to:

• Quantify CAPEX cost uncertainty through 350 Sobol-sequence simulations.
• Forecast German electricity and water prices over a 20-year plant life under two macro-economic scenarios (S1: prolonged crisis impact; S2: rapid return to pre-crisis trends).
• Generate 95 % probability cost ranges for CAPEX, OPEX, total cost of ownership (TCO) and levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH) rather than single-point values.

All input data—material prices, BoP costs, recycling rates, labour rates, energy tariffs—were sourced from 2018-2023 market quotations and official statistics.

Key Results
For a 5 MW PEMWE plant in Germany producing app. 17.8 kt H₂ over 20 years:

1. CAPEX ranges from €2.14 m to €2.58 m (95 % probability).

–Iridium price variability alone contributes ~35 % of CAPEX variance; Nafion membranes add ~25 %; power electronics ≈20 %.

1. OPEX ranges from €49.2 m to €80.5 m (95 % probability), depending on scenario — energy costs account for >95 % of OPEX variance in both scenarios.
2. TCO therefore spans €52 m–€82.5 m (95 % probability).
3. LCOH spans 5.5–11.4 €/kg H₂ (95 % probability, depending on scenario), capturing nearly the entire spread reported in global literature since 2012 (2–20 €/kg H₂).

Research Significance
The open-source tool (available at github.com/LCC-Tool/LCC_Tool_5MW-PEMWE) allows investors, policymakers and plant operators to:

• Replace opaque point estimates with statistically robust cost envelopes.
• Test cost-reduction levers such as iridium recycling, membrane reuse or circular-economy leasing models
• Adapt all parameters (material prices, discount rates, regional energy tariffs) to any geography or technology variant, ensuring global applicability.

By embedding Monte-Carlo simulation and transparent data pipelines, researchers give decision-makers the confidence interval they need for bankable hydrogen projects.