Climate change expands wildfire danger worldwide: New study warns of unprecedented risks in the coming decades

Key findings:

• By 2040, at least 55% of the world's fire-prone regions will experience significant increases in fire danger, regardless of emission scenario
• By 2100, between 68% and 91% of fire-prone areas could face heightened wildfire risk, depending on future emissions
• Even areas that in the past had a relatively low risk of wildfire are subject to this increase.
• Southern Africa, the Mediterranean region, northern Asia, northeastern South America, and parts of North America expected to see most pronounced increases
• The novel approach to studying fire risk reduces uncertainties, leading to potential benefits in targeted prevention strategies and long-term fire management.

A new study, led by CMCC and Coventry University, reveals that climate change will dramatically expand wildfire danger across the globe, with up to 91% of fire-prone regions experiencing heightened risk by the end of this century.

However, these changes are not just limited to areas that are traditionally fire-prone but could also affect ones that have rarely experienced wildfire risk in the past.

“Wildfire danger is expanding and intensifying due to climate change,” says CMCC researcher and co-author of the study Maria Vincenza Chiriacò. “The key takeaway from this study is that climate-driven fire danger is not a distant or localized issue, but a growing global challenge that demands proactive action.”

Some of the most pronounced increases in fire danger are expected in regions such as southern Africa, the Mediterranean region, northern Asia, northeastern South America, and parts of North America.

“The findings highlight how climate-driven fire danger will evolve globally, with important implications for livelihoods and ecosystem resilience,” says co-author of the study and climate scientist at Coventry University, Jonathan Eden. “It’s crucial that science continues to inform policy and planning to protect forest ecosystems and communities”

Under the highest emission scenario, the projected fire danger in large parts of North America, Eurasia, South America and southern Africa could represent conditions that had less than a 1% chance of occurring during the recent historical period.

“This research is a step forward in providing more reliable projections of future fire danger under climate change, so we can better inform policy and planning, especially in regions where it is expected to rise,” says lead author of the study Carolina Gallo.
“We offer a more nuanced view of future fire risk, which is critical for long-term strategies in climate adaptation and land management,” concludes Chiriacò.

CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change is a leading research institution dedicated to climate science, providing cutting-edge insights and innovative solutions for climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. CMCC plays a pivotal role in global climate research, working closely with international partners to advance climate modeling, forecasting, and policy recommendations. www.cmcc.it