Forecaster.Health now issues health alerts of air pollution for vulnerable populations

The Forecaster.health early warning system now includes a new feature: the ability to anticipate mortality associated with air pollution in Europe, using epidemiological models to adjust forecasts for different regions and population groups by sex and age. The update extends a platform that already provides region-specific forecasts of temperature-related mortality, stratified by sex and age. Forecaster.health was launched in June 2024 by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal)—a centre supported by the “la Caixa” Foundation.

Whereas early warning systems have traditionally relied on meteorological and air pollution forecasts, Forecaster.health belongs to a new generation of impact-based early warning systems that also incorporate epidemiological models and health data to account for the impact of the atmospheric phenomena on human’s health. The aim is therefore no longer merely to anticipate the occurrence of high pollution episodes or temperature extremes, but to predict their health impacts on the population—especially on the most vulnerable groups.

Alerts up to 4 days in advance

Specifically, this new feature transforms air quality forecasts into early warnings of mortality risk associated with four major air pollutants: fine particulate matter (PM2.5), coarse particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and tropospheric ozone (O₃). Forecaster.health provides epidemiology-based mortality risk alerts up to four days ahead for a total of 653 regions across 31 European countries.

“Up to now, most alert protocols have been activated only during very high pollution episodes, even though the greatest health burden always arises from moderate episodes, which are much more frequent and predominantly affect the most vulnerable people. Our system incorporates a health-equity approach to issue alerts not only under widespread-risk situations, but also when conditions are expected to affect these groups uniquely or especially,” says Zhao-Yue Chen, ISGlobal researcher.

Free to use

The tool is free and publicly available at https://forecaster.health/.

“Although Forecaster.health is open to anyone, we believe it can be especially useful for public health officials and local authorities. Issuing early warnings accounting for the actual health impacts of vulnerable groups is key to trigger real-world measures, such as reducing speed limits or restricting traffic in sensitive areas, like around schools, hospitals or nursing homes”, explains Joan Ballester Claramunt, principal investigator of the project.

How does Forecaster.health work?

Upon accessing Forecaster.health, users will find a map and a set of selectors allowing them to choose the date, region, and population group for which they want a forecast. After entering these variables, the mortality risk is displayed using a colour scale ranging from no risk to extreme risk.

The team used the daily mortality database of the project EARLY-ADAPT (https://www.early-adapt.eu), which currently includes data for 654 regions in 32 European countries by sex, age and cause of death, to fit separate epidemiological models for population groups. Every day, the tool obtains new updated air pollution forecasts, and uses the epidemiological models to quantify the risk of air pollution related mortality by sex and age group for any given date within the following 4 days.

Forecaster.health has been developed with funding from the European Research Council (ERC) through a Consolidator Grant awarded to the EARLY-ADAPT project, and two Proof-of-Concept Grants awarded to the HHS-EWS and FORECAST-AIR projects, both led by Joan Ballester Claramunt.

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URL: https://forecaster.health/

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The new version of the platform will be published after the embargo lifts.