‘Creeping catastrophe’: Climate change is driving global rise in infectious diseases, leading health experts warn

Published in Nature Scientific Reports the research determined insight from 3,752 health professionals and researchers across 151 countries and is one of the largest Global studies of its kind, with 86.9% of participants based in low- and middle-income countries. Participants reported that climate change, poverty, and drug resistance are combining to create an escalating health crisis that could become a ‘creeping catastrophe’ if left unaddressed.

Data gathered in countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America identified that experts throughout the world consider vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue as the most rapidly escalating threats, followed by tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS. The research confirmed they find the three main drivers are:

• Climate change, especially rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns, emerged across all regions as a primary driver of disease escalation as it expands mosquito and other vector ranges, increases breeding sites, and accelerates human mobility and displacement.
• Socioeconomic inequality, affecting living conditions and access to healthcare
• Antimicrobial resistance, undermining treatments for a wide range of infections worldwide

Professor Trudie Lang, Director of The Global Health Network at Oxford’s Nuffield Department of Medicine and senior author of the study said: “This study provides unparalleled evidence from communities experiencing these threats from Climate Change right now across the Global South, where disease burdens are highest.

“Typically these regions are under-represented and not collectively voiced but these data and insights are grounded in lived experience and global diversity. Our research clearly demonstrates that the next major health emergency may not be a sudden new outbreak, but the steady worsening of the quiet diseases that shorten lives every day.”

The study’s authors contend that this risk will not present as a dramatic outbreak, but as a slow-unfolding humanitarian disaster where endemic diseases spread into new geographies - impacting health systems and economies.

The authors argue that tackling these cross-cutting drivers of disease could strengthen preparedness for both existing and future threats. They call for sustained investment in diagnostics, surveillance, and equitable research partnerships that empower local leadership and build lasting research capacity.

Dr. Aliya Naheed. Country Director NIHR GHR Centre for NCDs and Environmental Change, Bangladesh said: “This phenomenal study echoes the core disparity in the top health priorities between the low to middle income countries (LMICS) and the high-income countries, recognizing the role of climate change on future health emergencies. The message of the future threat of the known disease burdens emphasizes the need of equitable global investment in the prevention and control of common infectious diseases in LMICs.”

The project was commissioned by Wellcome to inform its global infectious disease strategy and ensure research priorities reflect the realities faced by those working in health systems around the world.

Josie Golding, Head of Epidemics and Epidemiology, Infectious Disease, at Wellcome, said: “Climate change is driving the spread of infectious diseases, and it’s hitting hardest in communities least able to adapt. Rising temperatures, floods, and droughts create ideal conditions for mosquitoes, ticks, and harmful bacteria to thrive, while extreme weather adds strain to already fragile health systems.

"We need urgent global climate action, paired with investment in innovative solutions to prevent and treat infectious diseases. Acting on both fronts is essential - without it, diseases like malaria, dengue, and chikungunya will continue to surge, deepening inequalities and putting millions of lives at risk.

"We know that climate and health are inseparable, and by tackling common drivers of disease - from climate change to antimicrobial resistance - we can strengthen health systems to cope with current and emerging issues.”

The study, Global perspectives on infectious diseases at risk of escalation and their drivers, is published in Nature Scientific Reports (DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-22573-3).

Notes to editors

For more information:
Lucy Pritchard Head of Communications, Nuffield Department of Medicine

Email: Lucy.pritchard@ndm.ox.ac.uk

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Supportive quotes for media use:
Dr Julio Canario, Director, Fundación Etikos, Dominican Republic. “This highly rigorous and participatory study is a clear and unified call to action for the infectious disease community and policymakers. It confirms that the greatest threat is a 'progressive catastrophe' driven by the escalation of endemic diseases, rather than a sudden pandemic event. The timing of these findings is crucial, as they directly guide the reorientation of regional research agendas and funding towards transversal intervention strategies, particularly by highlighting the role of climate change and socioeconomic factors in VBDs, HIV, and TB.”

Professor Jackeline Alger, Instituto Antonio Vidal, Honduras: “The reported results, product of a methodology that ensures wide diverse geographic and pragmatic representation, provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of the global infectious diseases threats and their related factors, including the ecological impact of climate change. We need to act now with an equity focus facilitating the active participation of those where these threats have a more negative impact.”

Dr Vanessa de Arruda Jorge, Office of the President, Fiocruz Brazil: “Through a collaborative methodology, this study provides critical evidence on how climate change is intensifying the risks of infectious diseases, disproportionately affecting resource-limited regions. It underscores the urgent need for governments, global health institutions, and other actors to prioritize investment in citizen science - where research, surveillance, and mitigation strategies are carried out in co-participation with communities - particularly in the Global South, in countries such as Brazil, where these impacts are already evident. The findings resonate strongly with the discussions at COP30 in Belém, reinforcing the imperative to translate scientific insight into coordinated global action that ensures equity and preparedness against emerging health threats.”

About the Global Health Network
The Global Health Network is vast and highly connected community of health workers and health research organisations that enables research in every healthcare setting by driving equity in where research happens, who leads and who benefits from the evidence. This works by mobilising knowledge between organisations, across disease areas and different geographies. Embedded within many countries across the world this community runs research system strengthening programmes to integrate research within healthcare practice by facilitating workplace-based learning, local research support activities and professional development for research teams. The Global Health Network is a WHO collaborating centre because of this effort to enable teams everywhere in the world to undertake and lead research studies that address local priority health challenges. Visit: www.theglobalhealthnetwork.org

About the Nuffield Department of Medicine
The Nuffield Department of Medicine (NDM) at the University of Oxford is the largest department of medicine in Europe. It is distinguished by its excellence in several clinical disciplines, including tropical and general medicine, infectious disease, cancer, immunology, gastroenterology, respiratory and renal medicine, and vaccinology. Over the last fifty years, it has pioneered the use of genetics, structural and cellular biology to understand susceptibility to human disease, while maintaining a focus on clinical medicine. NDM has over 1,200 staff in the UK and 2,000 overseas, with over 20 major research institutes, centres and units in Oxford as well as Kenya, Thailand, Vietnam and several other countries. For more information, visit https://www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/

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